Why Chiefs vs. Texans will be essentially the most intriguing recreation of the NFL Divisional Playoffs

I’m truly fairly intrigued by this matchup between the Chiefs and Texans, largely as a result of I feel the Texans’ protection is enjoying among the finest soccer within the NFL proper now. What they did to the Chargers on Wild Card weekend would possibly violate the Geneva Conference. They pressured Justin Herbert on greater than half of his dropbacks, pressured 4 interceptions and allowed a -0.58 EPA per play, the fourth-lowest within the playoffs since 2016 (per Subsequent Gen Stats). This recreation felt like the complete manifestation of what head coach Demeco Ryans has wished in his protection since coming from San Francisco. Whereas the Texans don’t ship stress fairly often (fifteenth in blitz charge per Professional Soccer Reference), however after they do, they’re BRINGING IT. They’re seventh in Sack Charge and first in “Holy Shit” moments after they tee off on opponents, they usually do it from fronts that attempt to isolate their opponent’s weakest hyperlink.

Lots of occasions, when the Texans try to tee off on their opponents, they line up in these overloaded fronts. Which means Houston will put three defensive linemen on one aspect of the road, after which certainly one of their star EDGEs Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr. on the opposite aspect by themselves. Then, they’ll stroll up a linebacker, more often than not Azeez Al-Shaiir to the aspect the place Anderson Jr. or Hunter’s lone aspect. It’ll seem like this:

From right here, the Texans need to get the opposing offensive line to 5-0 their safety. When the offensive line sees 5 quick threats they usually go man-to-man safety. When Houston will get groups to isolate their protections, they hammer them with picks and stunts, numerous loops that work like choose and rolls in basketball. With two excellent EDGEs on the surface, they will actually pressure the offensive line’s hand by ensuring the tackles are occupied, then play video games with the opposite linemen. What I like about this move rush recreation is as an alternative of straight dashing Al-Shaiir by means of the A-gap, they’ve him stunt with Hunter, to make sure that no one from the bottom of this overloaded entrance can intervene with Anderson Jr flying in off a stunt. Anderson Jr. hits Justin Herbert’s arm and a chaotic play ends in a win.

Now, the Texans go up in opposition to a crew that has merely eviscerated defenses which might be run equally to theirs. Of their final matchup, Houston pressured QB Patrick Mahomes on 12 of his 45 dropbacks, per Sports activities Data Options. On these 12 dropbacks when pressured, the Chiefs went 7-10 for 60 yards and likewise had a 0.28 EPA per play. The Texans’ 26.7% stress charge was thirteenth for them on the season, however what stood out essentially the most going again and watching that recreation was how typically the Chiefs had solutions any time the Texans confirmed stress.

Houston likes to be in Cowl 1 after they present these stress appears to be like, and for good purpose: CBs Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter are phenomenal. Per SIS, Houston performs the fourth most snaps of Cowl 1 when sending 5 or extra blitzers within the NFL, and if you particularly filter it to 3rd down, they bounce to second. Figuring out this concerning the Texans, Kansas Metropolis unleashed a complete slew of solutions in opposition to man protection. This model of the Chiefs are a West Coast offense fans’ dream: they hammer opponents with velocity now with WR Hollywood Brown again, however they do it horizontally, opening lanes for Travis Kelce to take a seat within the voids. Mahomes nonetheless shreds man protection, however now they pry open lanes with stacks and pure picks to realize leverage. On this rep in opposition to the Texans, Kansas Metropolis motions Kelce to get a person or zone inform, and when he sees the defender observe him, the Chiefs comprehend it’s man. They’ve a designed stack with WR Deandre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy, however Worthy fakes entering into and sprints proper again to the surface. Straightforward leverage play that will get them 15 yards.

I ponder if Houston tries to throw extra zone in these conditions to throw Kansas Metropolis off the second time round, which can also be a threat as a result of Patrick Mahomes is superb vs. zone. Nonetheless, the sport goes to be gained or misplaced based mostly on if this Houston move rush can have an effect on Mahomes, and make his life tough.

Washington Commanders-Detroit Lions

This recreation is all about how the Lions defend one other scrambling QB in Jayden Daniels. To maintain it fairly easy, Jayden Daniels IS the engine that retains the Commanders’ offense going. Whether or not it’s his steadily rising golf golf equipment he has as a passer or the pressure he’s as a runner, the Commanders’ offense lives and dies on his skill. There are two facets of this matchup that I’m particularly watching: the Daniels’ scrambles and the targets over the center of the sphere. In opposition to man protection, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble charge and a 0.13 EPA per play. He’s such a dynamic pressure as a runner when he can punish man protection, and the Commanders have constructed this offense to let Daniels flip it unfastened as a runner every time he sees a lane. The Lions truly aren’t that dangerous in opposition to scrambles! nineteenth within the league in EPA per play on scrambles and twentieth in Constructive Play Charge. Nonetheless, additionally they lead the remaining groups left within the playoffs in Cowl 1 charge, and in Cowl 1 you allow a little bit of gaps for runners equivalent to Daniels.

But, I feel I fear extra concerning the Lions’ move protection in Cowl 1 in opposition to this crew, particularly the linebackers. The numbers haven’t been there for Daniels this season in opposition to Cowl 1 (nineteenth in whole EPA), however in opposition to Tampa he confirmed extra of a capability to poke holes in the midst of the sphere. He was firing passes in opposition to Cowl 1 concentrating on over routes in opposition to Tampa Bay’s overmatched corners, hammering lots of WR Terry McLaurin like this over route. Love how McLaurin works this path to the within, form of stair-stepping this path to create extra separation.

For Detroit, there are three gamers that I’m circling: LBs Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, and CB Amik Robertson. Anzalone got here again of their emphatic week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and he supplied one other regular hand in the midst of that protection, particularly in move protection. He drew the duty of defending TE TJ Hockenson, and his physicality actually pissed off the Vikings’ TE. I feel that’s going to be the play in opposition to Zach Ertz, who Daniels actually trusts within the passing recreation.