MBW Views is a sequence of unique op/eds from eminent music business individuals… with one thing to say. The next comes from Will Web page, the creator of Pivot, former chief economist of Spotify and PRS for Music, and a fellow of the London Faculty of Economics. Web page analyzes the cancellation of fifty (fifty!) music festivals within the UK to date this yr, and what it signifies in regards to the dwell enterprise shifting ahead.
He says: ‘Recall the adage: Construct one too many homes and also you collapse the property market? Buckle up, as festivals at the moment are feeling that warmth…’
It’s no secret that the Nice British summer season festivals are discovering issues tough this yr.
For all of the discuss of boom-town Swiftonomics at stadiums in Edinburgh, Liverpool and London, for UK festivals it’s carnage with 50 (fifty!) cancellations, and counting.
You’ll discover the casualties listed on the foot of this text, however let’s first dissect how we bought right here.
Round this time final yr I provided MBW readers some easy maths for 2022: 2+2=4.
Customers within the UK spent simply over GBP £2bn on dwell music and £2bn on recorded music, taking the overall spend in 2022 to £4.1bn. That was up by virtually a billion on pre-lockdown 2019.
Impressed? Now add one other £700m in spend throughout 2023 – 10% development in recorded and a reported 24% in dwell – and we’re hovering in direction of £5bn (£4.9bn, see under).
Not solely that, music’s share of customers’ ‘leisure’ pockets in 2023 rose to 3.3%. In different phrases, music’s getting a much bigger share of a fatter pockets.
After which, the music stopped.
First, there have been reviews from the US about poor demand for area excursions, the place on-line seating maps disclose to the patron simply how lonely they’ll be inside (#awkward!).
The forces of provide and demand don’t assist however there’s a credit score crunch hitting pageant promoters this yr that hurts, no matter ticket gross sales.
In some ways, festivals massive and small are looking at a triple whammy of Brexit, Covid and now inflation and people prices now forcing upon pageant organisers have been simmering for a few years and are lastly effervescent over.
“The bathroom rent for a pageant in 2021 was £28,000. Then, for the very same quantity of package in 2024, we have been initially quoted £54,000.”
Millie Devereux, We Are The Honest
We Are The Honest manufacturing director Millie Devereux notes: “Budgets have grown exponentially since COVID-19. The bathroom rent for a pageant in 2021 was £28,000. Then, for the very same quantity of package in 2024, we have been initially quoted £54,000.” Distinction that with the common ticket costs, rising by solely 17% from 2019 to current.
Right here’s the credit-crunch promoters are at the moment calculating: you both cut back manufacturing, jack up costs or name it quits.
Rostron’s answer is for the UK Authorities to throw the business a short lived lifeline and decrease VAT from 20% to five%.
“Reducing VAT can transfer the needle from loss to revenue, because it provides respiration area to their unpredictable and uncontrollable provide chain prices,” he argues. “If they’d performed this earlier, a lot of these 50 cancellations would have nonetheless gone forward.”
Subject 2: Provide – an empty area of niches?
One development is rising from the cancellation carnage: multi-genre festivals are being hit onerous — and if we have a look at what music customers are streaming on-line, the collapse of human editorial, and subsequent rise of the algorithm, might clarify why.
Festivals work as a result of all of us collect spherical a foremost stage late at night time and sing the identical songs collectively. If our level of connection isn’t others with pulses (however slightly our personal distinctive algorithmic selection) then festivals serve a area of niches that ain’t a straightforward promote.
“A genre-unfocused festival-poster lineup begins to only appear like a playlist that has been made and personalised for anyone else.”
Glenn McDonald
Maybe we’re not at a degree the place no single act can promote out a pageant. What’s extra, a number of completely different acts confuse the algo-trained client. Glenn McDonald, creator of the sensible e book You Haven’t Heard your Favorite Music argues that “a genre-unfocused festival-poster lineup begins to only appear like a playlist that has been made and personalised for anyone else”.
One other method to consider this area of niches is to check a grocery store with a specialist butcher — in any case they each promote the identical product. Put one Okay-Pop act on a pageant stage and also you would possibly promote a bunch of day tickets, e book three and also you’ve bought the largest Okay-Pop pageant in Britain.
If we’re looking at a area of niches, it might stand to cause that artists and festivals with a transparent USP will climate the storm. Take the soul-and-jazz focussed Love Supreme Competition who just do that — the place demand held up properly this yr.
Subject 3: Demand – go actually huge or keep house
Richard Kramer (co-presenter of the Bubble Bother podcast) reminds us how bubbles get into hassle after we “recover from our skis”. Stadiums and Festivals have exploded in quantity and worth, capturing half of UK field workplace in 2022 (up from a fifth ten years prior), which could clarify why their skis hit the skids.
Why? Gig goers had a refund then, they’ve much less now and with inflation rooted into the ticket and all that surrounds it, they’re spending much less of it. What’s extra, a lot of will probably be spent on Taylor Swift.
It’s not a race to the underside, it’s a race to the highest – individuals draw up priorities for his or her spend (e.g. vacation, metropolis break, eating out, favorite act and pageant) and after they rationalise, the costliest wins. This is applicable to festivals and eating places alike
This faucets right into a headline from final yr, ‘go huge or keep house’; customers are prepared to spend a whole lot on stadium reveals, however not spare change on grass roots. One cause why could be discovered hidden in my e book Pivot — and, for this, we have to assume retail.
Chris Gardener, of economic realty big CBRE, argues that no person goes into retailers anymore and asks: ‘Have you ever bought … ?’
If there’s a perceived threat it may not be in inventory, they default to Amazon. Maybe a stadium de-risks the expertise too?
Subject 4: Tradition – Socials don’t socialise in fields
An more and more widespread response from those that went to festivals previously however selected to not this yr is that ‘they didn’t assume they’d buddies to go together with’. Ouch! I’m not outfitted to unpack this one however I’ll strive that will help you achieve this by stating two issues.
First, social media might end in what Amazon’s Katie Vitolins known as a ‘claustrophobia of abundance’. They might have a whole lot (or hundreds) of buddies on-line, however that doesn’t translate into human interplay in pageant fields.
Second, bear in mind the goal market for a lot of of this yr’s festivals – faculty leavers (18-19 years) and graduates (21-23 years) — these age buckets have been caught within the terrible cross-fire of the 2020 pandemic. Therapeutic that wound should be a piece in progress.
“Followers with tattoos of their favorite band or these in a position to recite lyrics word-for-word… has far more which means than any information dashboard.”
Placing angst about future generations apart, one other consideration is that the web, which I’ve lengthy argued can scale absolutely anything apart from intimacy. Promoters should have a wry smile when labels debate the definition of ‘superfan’.
On the lookout for superfan alerts in a professional rata pool of streaming information is meaningless.
Marty Diamond, a legendary reserving agent, as soon as instructed me that the one information level he trusts is comments-per-views ratio. A lot of views with no feedback interprets to numerous ‘meh,’ however lesser views accompanied by a better ratio means numerous engaged followers.
For promoters, not solely have they got the problems of value and shortage to juggle, however they will additionally visibly rely these followers with tattoos of their favorite band or these in a position to recite lyrics word-for-word. That has far more which means than any information dashboard.
Subject 5: Simply blame the climate
Lastly (as we within the UK know too effectively) It’s pissed down for the primary half of 2024. Or to place a extra factual spin on it, we had a prime 20% wettest March, the sixth wettest April of the final 189 years and well-above common rainfall in June. That’s bought to have an effect on the alternatives being made by the patron.
“WizzAir will get you [from the UK] to Lisbon for £29.99.”
Elena Joseph
“Much less cash, extra selection,” remarked social commentator Elena Joseph. “Studying is asking for a three-figure quantity that begins with a 3 (£325 a ticket), whereas WizzAir will get you to Lisbon for a two-figure quantity that begins with a two (£29.99)”.
She concludes “Youthful generations who’re uninterested in British climate might bide their time after which choose to save-and-go-south the place the solar will certainly be shining this summer season”.
So, now what?
The business actual property world coined the expression ‘earn again the commute” — you possibly can’t simply count on staff to come back again to the workplace, it is advisable to earn their respect by providing extra comfort and facilities.
So how do festivals “earn again” the concert-goer?
It ain’t going to be simple. I can shortly cough up a listing of alarming headwinds: disposable earnings is tightening whereas inflation is reeling (and pushing extra of us into increased tax bands) and the expiry of beneficial mortgage charges looms like a ticking time bomb.
However festivals are countering this with tailwinds of their very own, like investing in supermarkets on web site with low cost(er) beer for individuals who need to get together, while additionally switching focus to providing yoga. pilates and wellness centres for people who don’t.
If workplaces can do it, so can also festivals. The time for a rethink begins now.
We reproduce the listing with permission right here:
Hold It Actual People Competition. Competition cancelled. Motive unknown, seems to be a licensing rejection.
The Summer time Solstice Competition. Licence refused in days previous to occasion after residents listening to
Geronimo Competition. Cancelled with two months to go. “The occasion has turn out to be an unsustainable monetary threat.”
ZenFest. Cancelled for 2024. No strategies it’ll return.
Starry Village. Cancelled one month previous to the pageant. “Rising inflation has led to manufacturing prices drastically spiralling – and the price of dwelling disaster has had a impression on ticket gross sales, as people wrestle to make ends meet. Sadly, this has led to the very troublesome and unhappy resolution that it’s simply not viable for Starry Village to proceed.”
Beneath The Stars. Introduced pageant would be the final, for now. “This resolution, although troublesome, feels proper as we embrace these new chapters in our lives.”
One other World Music Competition. Postponed till 2025 resulting from low ticket gross sales and licensing points.
Beacon Competition. “The Beacon group have needed to make a troublesome resolution in mild of skyrocketing pageant bills : Beacon Competition 2024 would be the final.”
Askern Music Competition. Postponed till 2025 after 2024 occasion is refused licence resulting from security considerations.
51st State Competition. Postponed till 2025. “Because of the price of dwelling disaster, a major enhance in operational prices and operational points, as an unbiased pageant it isn’t economically possible for us to proceed in 2024”.
Towersey Competition. Pronounces this yr’s version, its sixtieth, shall be its final. “Like many different unbiased and grassroots festivals we now have confronted too many forces exterior of our management which have made it more and more troublesome to function and survive”.
Twisted Competition. Postponed after shedding their web site, and unable to safe new web site in time. Intend to return in 2025.
Bingley Problem Competition. Cancelled three days previous to occasion “they stated “security considerations”, together with fencing off a woodland space in case of fireside, had prompted the occasion’s cancellation.
El Dorado. Cancelled for 2024. “Over the previous yr we, like many others, have battled with a dramatic rise in operational prices for operating a present like El Dorado, compounded by the impression of the elevated value of dwelling on the pageant business and our group. Regardless of our greatest efforts we’re confronted with the potential for catastrophic losses.”
Welliestock. “I’ve tried for months to cut back the price of the occasion however sadly, with all the pieces being far costlier than 2018 I’ve not been capable of finding a method which might have seen tickets having to double in value, one thing which we at all times aimed toward avoiding as we at all times need it to be an inexpensive household occasion.”
Visions Competition. “Taking a much-needed break for 2024”.
Riverside Competition. “Decrease-than-expected gross sales and elevated infrastructure, workers, transport and artist prices”.
We Are Fstvl. Competition cancelled over security considerations.
Heartwood Competition. “Festivals have lifecycles that depend on the people that facilitate them, and while we’re solely in our 4th yr our circumstances and aspirations for the longer term personally, professionally and geographically, gained’t permit us to pour the love into Heartwood that it requires”.
ND Competition. “Because of funding and sponsorship modifications the pageant is not viable”.
Meadowfest. Couldn’t attain settlement with landowner. “By no means say by no means however it might be troublesome to convey the occasion again as soon as it has been pulled like this.”
Penn Fest. Cancelled resulting from buying and selling situations and elevated prices. Could return in 2025.
Illusive Competition. Have introduced their 2024 version would be the final.
Clun Inexperienced Man. Cancelled resulting from climate. Will return in 2025.
Askambury Competition. “It’s time we took a break”.
Shindig. Have introduced this yr’s occasion shall be its final. Cite venue modifications and challenges of operating an unbiased pageant.
Tunes On The Bay Competition . Has been postponed till 2025.
Lowedefest. Purchased to an finish after 13 years.
Neighbourhood Weekender. No occasion deliberate for 2024. Mentioned they may return in 2025.
Camp Quirky. Taking a fallow yr. Cite challenges of operating an unbiased pageant.
Doonhame. Rising prices power cancellation of pageant.
Splendour. No occasion in 2024 resulting from tender and procurement points. Competition hopes to return in 2025.
Love Match. Competition cancelled and firm goes into liquidation.
Hayloft Reside. Cancelled due “to unforseen circumstances”.
Ampthill. Competition cancelled unable to cowl prices. firm goes into administration.
Join. Competition won’t go forward this yr. No cause given. Suggests it might return in 2025.
110 Above. Rising prices imply no pageant in 2024 and no plans for a future version.
Standon Calling. Competition postpones till 2025.
Spring Basic. Competition cancelled resulting from prices.
Smoked and Uncut. Competition cancelled. No cause given.
Takedown Competition. Postponed till 2025. Constructing works and buying and selling situations given as cause for postponement.
Detonate Competition. Cancelled for 2024 resulting from prices.
Togfest. No plans for pageant to return. Lack of core group and a few venue points given as cause.
Nibley. Introduced 2024 shall be their final pageant. Cite rising prices in opposition to a backdrop of value of dwelling disaster.
Bingley Competition. No plans for pageant to return. “Manufacturing prices have gone by means of the roof”.
Escape Into The Park. Competition won’t happen resulting from “enhance in provider and artist prices”.
NASS Competition. After its 2023 version it introduced it won’t return.
Area Maneuvers. Has introduced its 2024 version shall be its final in its present type.
Nozstock: The Hidden Valley. Has introduced 2024 – its 26 version – would be the final occasion, citing rise in provide chain prices as its cause for reluctant closure.
Bluedot Competition. Has stated itʼs taking a ‘fallow yearʼ for 2024.
Leopallooza. Made its 2023 version its ultimate occasion.
Barn On The Farm. Has introduced will probably be attempting to return in 2025.
