Whereas this yr’s Giro d’Italia was a foregone conclusion and the Tour de France the protect of an elite few, the Vuelta a España guarantees to be a extra open affair. That’s, in fact, totally consistent with the tenor of the season’s third Grand Tour, which has a behavior of manufacturing stunning surprises and even the occasional shock winner.
No person anticipated Juan José Cobo or Chris Froome to struggle it out for purple in 2011, in any case, whereas Chris Horner’s victory two years later was a bolt from the blue. In 2015, Tom Dumoulin introduced himself as a Grand Tour rider by virtually successful the race, and Sepp Kuss’ total victory twelve months in the past introduced an sudden sprint of drama to Jumbo-Visma’s procession.
Within the absence of Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, who operated on one other aircraft to the remaining in July, there’s something of an influence vacuum at this Vuelta, however that solely makes the race extra intriguing.
On the Giro, all the GC males bar Pogačar knew they had been racing for second place. On the Tour, the majority of the GC riders knew they had been competing for fourth. On the Vuelta, one senses that ambitions are being quietly revised upwards throughout the peloton.
Three-time winner Primož Roglič is a logical favorite, however a lot will depend on his restoration from the harm that pressured him out of the Tour. UAE Group Emirates are chasing a clear sweep of Grand Excursions however regardless that they need to have the strongest group in Spain, the absence of Pogačar provides everyone else a puncher’s likelihood.
The hierarchy is unclear and, in fact, the roll name of podium contenders could possibly be twenty riders lengthy. Males like Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-Alula) and Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek) have not made our brief checklist, however they, too, will set out from Lisbon conscious of the chances forward. The script of this Vuelta is unwritten.
Primož Roglič (Pink Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
The Vuelta, Eusebio Unzué as soon as advised, was one thing of a re-sit for males who fell brief – or just fell off – throughout the large examination in July. Alex Zülle did it, and so did Abraham Olano, Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana. However no one has accomplished it fairly like Primož Roglič, whose three Vuelta victories so far have all served as compensation for a weighty disappointment earlier within the yr.
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In 2019, Roglič had squandered a successful hand at an imminently winnable Giro d’Italia, however he allayed doubts about his aptitude for Grand Tour racing by touchdown the Vuelta. A yr later, he bounced again from the trauma of shedding the Tour de France on the final to assert the pandemic-delayed Vuelta. In 2021, Roglič lifted himself from the canvas over again, this time after crashing out of the Tour, to assert his most dominant Vuelta triumph.
Over the previous two years, Roglič hasn’t fairly managed to know the comfort prize, however the precept has remained the identical. After crashing out of the 2022 Tour, one other fall ended his Vuelta problem within the closing week. Final yr, after being omitted from Visma’s Tour squad altogether, his path to Vuelta victory was sophisticated by group politics.
When Roglič endured his newest Tour heartbreak in Villeneuve-sur-Lot final month, his schedule appeared to write down itself, even when Pink Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe delayed the inevitable affirmation as they waited to ensure their rider had absolutely recovered from his accidents. The announcement lastly got here this week: Roglič will trip the Vuelta, flanked by Aleksandr Vlasov.
His group is totally different this yr, however the circumstances are acquainted. In a race punctuated by a lot uncertainty, Roglič is the closest factor to a assure, although Rolf Aldag has warned that all the pieces will depend upon how properly he has recovered from the accidents sustained final month. The opening week will reveal extra.
Sepp Kuss (Visma-Lease a Bike)
‘GC Kuss’ faces into the troublesome second album, however after a making an attempt 2024 marketing campaign so far, there have been some promising omens from the Vuelta a Burgos. Sepp Kuss’ total win there was solely the third basic classification victory of his profession – the others had been final yr’s Vuelta and the 2018 Tour of Utah – and his show on the important thing climb to Lagunas de Neila will supply some reassurance after an detached season thus far.
Kuss was on account of trip the Tour within the service of Jonas Vingegaard, however a COVID-19 an infection in June noticed him faraway from the Visma-Lease a Bike squad. Lacking out on the Tour would ordinarily be a disappointment, but it surely additionally provided Kuss the possibility of a reset. He will likely be one of many few total contenders at this Vuelta and not using a Grand Tour already in his legs, and that freshness would possibly stand to him right here.
Then once more, Kuss raced final yr’s Vuelta after heavy shifts on the Giro and Tour, and it did him little hurt. The lie of the land was very totally different, thoughts, with Vingegaard and Roglič setting out as Visma’s acknowledged leaders earlier than Kuss’ raid at Javalambre upset the hierarchy.
This outing, Cian Uijtdebroeks is the opposite man with GC ambitions within the line-up, whereas Wout van Aert will take pleasure in a free function as he searches for stage wins and, above all, seeks type forward of the World Championships.
Adam Yates (UAE Group Emirates)
Adam Yates will likely be a harmful foe on the Vuelta. Certainly, even when driving as a brilliant domestique for Tadej Pogačar, the Bury man has developed a penchant for stable GC performances. After inserting third total on final yr’s Tour, Yates helped himself to sixth place this time round regardless of being deployed slightly earlier on the ending climbs.
On the Vuelta, Yates will likely be unfettered by domestique duties, at the very least at the beginning, when he units off as UAE Group Emirates co-leader alongside João Almeida. That partnership paid dividends on the Tour de Suisse, the place they helped themselves to the highest two locations total and 4 stage wins, and there’s little cause to imagine the pair gained’t strike an honest working settlement on this Vuelta in addition.
Though Yates impressed in weeklong stage races throughout his spells at GreenEdge and Ineos, he had by no means regarded a probable Grand Tour winner, with fourth locations on the 2016 Tour and 2021 Vuelta his greatest finishes after three weeks.
He has loved a exceptional resurgence since becoming a member of UAE forward of the 2023 season, nonetheless, and lately there appear to be few limits on what he can obtain. In a race with out Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel, he would possibly even put on purple into Madrid.
João Almeida (UAE Group Emirates)
João Almeida is the opposite half of UAE’s management pairing and the Portuguese rider, like Yates, will realise that this Vuelta presents a real alternative to inscribe a Grand Tour on his palmarès. The Portuguese rider has proven his aptitude for the self-discipline from the outset, main the 2020 Giro for over two weeks as a neo-professional earlier than ending a positive fourth total at Milan.
He has usually been tasked with working for others in Grand Excursions since, although Almeida has tended to point out his high quality when given the chance. He completed on the rostrum of final yr’s Giro and would possibly very properly have accomplished the identical in 2022 had a COVID-19 an infection not ended his race prematurely. He arrives at this Vuelta, in the meantime, buoyed by a positive Tour debut, the place he labored diligently for Pogačar whereas serving to himself to fourth total.
This Vuelta is of particular resonance for Almeida provided that the race begins in his native Portugal and the 12km time trial in Lisbon provides him an early alternative to stake a declare to outright group management. The UAE squad, in the meantime, appears to be the deepest one within the race, with Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine and younger expertise Isaac del Toro all that includes. Certainly, Del Toro’s Grand Tour debut will likely be of appreciable curiosity, provided that it even be an audition for the Mexican’s personal future GC aspirations.
Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)
Two years in the past, Carlos Rodríguez loved a glowing Vuelta debut, inserting seventh total, even when his show was in the end overshadowed by that of his up to date Juan Ayuso (UAE Group Emirates), who turned the primary teenager to make the rostrum of a Grand Tour since 1904. This outing, with Ayuso an absentee, Rodríguez would be the topic of reasonably extra house consideration.
After inserting fifth total and successful a stage eventually yr’s Tour, Rodríguez endured a harder time of it this previous July. Hampered by sickness, he finally reached Good a distant seventh total, however he was nonetheless one of the best factor about Ineos’ reasonably nondescript Tour. He’ll hope for higher on the Vuelta, although it will likely be a substantial take a look at of his mettle provided that this would be the first time he has raced two Grand Excursions in the identical season.
With that in thoughts, Rodríguez will likely be flanked by co-leader Thymen Arensman, who has had extra of a tailor-made build-up to this Vuelta after inserting sixth total on the Giro in Might.
The Dutchman beforehand positioned sixth on the 2022 Vuelta and he will likely be aiming for higher right here, however it will likely be fascinating to see how he dovetails his efforts with Rodríguez. He didn’t at all times look like working from the identical playbook as Geraint Thomas on the Giro, even when it didn’t forestall the Welshman from holding agency in third total.
Richard Carapaz (EF Training-EasyPost)
It’s been some time since Richard Carapaz has challenged for the final classification at a Grand Tour and that enables the Ecuadorian to set out from Lisbon just below the radar, a place from which he has accomplished appreciable harm in years previous, most notably when successful the 2019 Giro forward of Roglič and Vincenzo Nibali.
A yr later, Carapaz virtually snatched the Vuelta from Roglič on the final, whereas in 2021, he was the one shiny spot in a torrid Tour for Ineos, taking third total. On his final actual tilt at a Grand Tour, in the meantime, Carapaz positioned second on the 2022 Giro after main the race into the ultimate weekend. At that yr’s Vuelta, Carapaz was deployed primarily in a supporting function by Ineos, however he nonetheless helped himself to a hat-trick of stage wins. He’s one thing of a assure in a three-week race, in different phrases, as long as his luck holds.
Luck, in fact, has been a thorny difficulty throughout Carapaz’s time at EF. He crashed out of the 2023 Tour after crashing closely on the opening day, whereas his 2024 problem was compromised by one other crash on the Tour de Suisse. That led to a fast revision of expectations, with Carapaz assigned one thing of a free function. After snatching a day in yellow early on, he proceeded to win at Superdévoluy and take the king of the mountains title. This Vuelta, nonetheless, will reveal a lot about Carapaz’s future prospects as a GC contender.
Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep)
The outsized performances of the boys on the Tour podium understandably garnered many of the consideration, however Mikel Landa quietly put collectively probably the greatest Grand Tour shows of his profession in July. Though his main function was to shepherd Remco Evenepoel by means of the mountains – not that the Belgian regarded in want of an excessive amount of steerage – Landa additionally helped himself to fifth place total in Paris after delivering a most constant physique of labor within the excessive mountains.
When Landa swapped Bahrain for Soudal-QuickStep final winter, the quid professional quo was clear. He would trip for Evenepoel in July earlier than being given his freedom on the Vuelta. It is going to be fascinating to see what the Basque can obtain right here, not least as a result of his file within the Spanish race has been a surprisingly underwhelming one. His lone stage victory got here on the Andorran epic in 2015, whereas his greatest total end was final yr’s fifth place.
Landa’s greatest Grand Tour shows have tended to return in France and Italy – and infrequently whereas driving within the service of others. However then once more, that’s all a part of the contradictory mystique of one of many peloton’s most compelling figures. Absolutely anything might occur.
“Landismo isn’t going to vary,” Landa informed El Pais throughout his shift on Evenepoel’s behalf on the Tour. “Possibly I might have gained extra races, been extra profitable, however I would not change it. I would not change it.”
Ben O’Connor (Decathlon-AG2R)
On the Giro in Might, Ben O’Connor positioned fourth total, matching his best-ever Grand Tour end, however the Australian may need come away nursing some delicate regrets given how sickness tempered his podium problem within the closing week. Irrespective of, the race gave O’Connor exactly the form of arduous reset he wanted after sad experiences on the Tour in 2022 and 2023.
A reset of a distinct sort will are available 2025 when O’Connor strikes to Jayco-AlUla, however his imminent departure mercifully hasn’t discouraged Decathlon-AG2R from dispatching him to the Vuelta. And with good cause. After an all-action opening half of the season, Vincent Lavenu’s squad appeared to expire of momentum by the point the Tour got here round, however O’Connor’s presence instantly elevates their Vuelta prospects.
O’Connor has been strikingly constant all season – second on the UAE Tour and Tour of the Alps, fifth at Tirreno-Adriatico – and he’ll anticipate to proceed in that trend on the Vuelta, the place he positioned seventh total two years in the past.
The 28-year-old’s acknowledged intention is a stage win and a top-five end, however he is likely to be quietly nurturing loftier ambitions. He was, in any case, the one man to dare to comply with a full-blown Pogačar assault on the Giro. It proved a harsh lesson, but it surely was additionally a sign of his inherent perception. He gained’t be daunted right here.
Enric Mas (Movistar)
It’s simple to neglect that Enric Mas has completed second no fewer than thrice on the Vuelta. The difficulty for the Mallorcan is that each step ahead in his profession appears to be adopted by three steps again. Second total behind Simon Yates in 2018 appeared to mark Mas out as the way forward for Spanish biking, however he has spent the years since by no means fairly residing as much as that potential, regardless of inserting second once more in 2021 and 2022.
Certainly, that 2022 efficiency was doomed to be overshadowed by Ayuso’s youthful podium end, and Mas’ travails over the previous two seasons have accomplished little to persuade the Spanish biking public that he’s the person to finish a Vuelta drought that now stretches again a decade to Alberto Contador’s closing total win in 2014
Mas arrives at this Vuelta below appreciable stress after an underwhelming season. It was one factor to be stable although wholly unspectacular by means of the Spring; it was one thing else altogether to implode on the Tour. The 29-year-old was by no means within the GC race in July, ending nineteenth in Good, and his repeated makes an attempt to salvage a stage win from the break additionally got here up brief.
As Unzué would have it, the Vuelta presents Mas an opportunity to resit that July examination, and he can have Nairo Quintana and Oier Lazkano for firm in a Movistar squad in dire want of an enormous consequence on house roads. Mas does have the helpful behavior of digging out stable rides on the Vuelta proper simply when he’s being written off, however he’ll have his work minimize out to make the rostrum right here.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
There are many different riders with better Grand Tour credentials and expertise who’re equally worthy of a spot on this checklist – Eddie Dunbar and Antonio Tiberi spring to thoughts – however Lidl-Trek’s resolution to carry Mattias Skjelmose again for the Vuelta makes him one of the crucial intriguing contenders to look at on this yr’s race.
The Danish climber has proven his mettle in weeklong stage races and punchy one-day occasions over the previous two seasons, however he has but to show himself over three weeks.
Lidl-Trek, nonetheless, weren’t unduly deterred by Skjelmose’s subdued Tour debut final yr and there have already been murmurings about deploying him as a frontrunner subsequent July. With that in thoughts, this Vuelta is a key stage in Skjelmose’s growth. Nonetheless solely 23, Skjelmose has impressed on the prime stage this yr – third on the Tour de Suisse and Itzulia Basque Nation, fourth at Paris-Good – however the Vuelta will likely be a distinct form of take a look at.
Skjelmose will likely be flanked in a powerful Lidl-Trek group by Giulio Ciccone, who positioned eleventh on the Tour, and, above all, by Tao Geoghegan Hart, who missed the Tour on account of sickness and harm. Geoghegan Hart continues to be feeling his approach again after his extreme crash on the 2023 Giro, however there have been some promising moments this season, notably on the Tour de Romandie. He’ll hope for extra on the Vuelta.
