In an commercial for the Democrats in the USA in October, a picture of left-wing environmentalist politician Jill Stein morphs into the face of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump throughout the blink of an eye fixed.
“A vote for Stein is mostly a vote for Trump,” a cautionary voiceover within the commercial, titled “Essential”, says. The video segues into Trump at a Pennsylvania rally this yr, saying: “Jill Stein? I like her very a lot. You already know why? She takes 100% from them.”
On October 28, the Democratic Nationwide Committee introduced that it will spend about $500,000 in a last-minute effort to influence voters in swing states towards voting for third-party candidates reminiscent of Stein, the Inexperienced Social gathering’s nominee for the presidential election, and the unaffiliated candidate, Cornel West.
Each Trump and the Democrats have implied that Stein might dent the vote for Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris, paving the best way for a Trump win.
However what do the polls say? How a lot affect might Stein, a third-party candidate, have on the end result?
Who’s Jill Stein and what are her key positions?
Stein, 74, is the US Inexperienced Social gathering nominee for the presidential election. She introduced her candidacy through a video message on X on November 9, 2023. She beforehand ran for the 2012 and 2016 elections.
Born in Chicago and raised in Illinois, Stein graduated from Harvard School in 1973 and from Harvard Medical College in 1979. Her marketing campaign web site describes her as a practising doctor.
The Inexperienced Social gathering is a left-wing federation of Inexperienced state events within the US, advocating for environmentalism and social justice.
Her positions on a few of the key points on this election are:
Israel’s conflict on Gaza
Stein has known as for an fast ceasefire in Gaza, an finish to the blockade of the Palestinian enclave, the supply of humanitarian support and the discharge of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails alongside Israeli captives being held in Gaza. Based on her marketing campaign web site, she needs to “cease US assist and arms gross sales to human rights abusers”. She needs to “finish the longstanding US observe of vetoing UN Safety Council resolutions to carry Israel accountable to worldwide legislation”. She additionally says she needs to disband NATO and “change it with a contemporary, inclusive safety framework that respects the safety pursuits of all nations and other people”.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
The Inexperienced Social gathering needs to “cease fuelling” the Russia-Ukraine conflict and work on negotiating a peaceable finish to it.
Local weather change
Stein’s get together needs to advance the Inexperienced New Deal proposal to transition to wash vitality and obtain zero emissions. The get together says it takes an “eco-socialist method” in direction of the setting, centring and compensating Black individuals, Indigenous individuals and the poor. Stein needs to declare a local weather emergency and make sure the launch of $650bn yearly to spice up renewable vitality and clear transport.
The financial system
A Stein administration would search to create an financial system that “works for working individuals, not simply the rich and highly effective”. Stein needs to introduce an financial invoice of rights, abolishing personal colleges and guaranteeing free childcare and a lifelong free public schooling for all from preschool to graduate college. Moreover, she needs to cancel pupil debt for 43 million individuals within the US. She additionally needs to cut back taxes on incomes beneath the true median revenue of $75,000 per family, and improve taxes on “the ultra-wealthy and large firms”.
How is Stein faring within the polls?
Total, Stein was polling at about 1 p.c nationally, in response to The New York Occasions polling launched within the first week of October.
Nonetheless, discontent is brewing amongst many Arab-American and Muslim voters in direction of each the main candidates – Harris and Trump – due to their unwavering assist for Israel in its conflict in Gaza.
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), a US-based Muslim civil rights and advocacy organisation, revealed on Friday that 42.3 p.c of Muslim voters favor Stein in contrast with 41 p.c of Muslim voters preferring Harris.
The ballot of 1,449 verified Muslim American voters was carried out between October 1 and 31. It confirmed simply 9.8 p.c of Muslim voters have been in assist of Trump.
On February 27 this yr, CAIR estimated that there have been about 2.5 million registered Muslim American voters. That’s roughly 1.6 p.c of some 160 million registered voters within the US.
How is Stein polling within the swing states?
Between October 30 and 31, Brazil-based analytics and information intelligence web site AtlasIntel polled samples of voters within the seven swing states.
- Arizona: 1.1 p.c of voters most well-liked Stein; 50.8 p.c most well-liked Trump; and 45.9 Harris
- Georgia: 2 p.c for Stein; 48.8 p.c for Trump; and 47.2 p.c for Harris
- Michigan: 1.7 p.c for Stein; 49.2 p.c for Trump; and 48.3 p.c for Harris
- Nevada: 1.2 p.c of voters selected “Others”; 50.5 p.c selected Trump; and 46.9 p.c selected Harris; Stein didn’t determine on the poll
- North Carolina: 0.7 p.c for Stein; 50.7 p.c for Trump; and 46.7 p.c for Harris
- Pennsylvania: 1 p.c for Stein; 48.5 p.c for Trump; and 47.4 p.c for Harris
- Wisconsin: 0.8 p.c for Stein; 48.5 p.c for Trump; and 48.2 p.c for Harris
May Stein swing this election?
Because the margins between Harris and Trump are so slim, some consultants consider that votes for Stein might certainly swing the election.
“The vote proper now could be so shut {that a} small quantity of tipping in a single course or one other might swing it,” Bernard Tamas, professor of political science at Valdosta State College, advised The Guardian newspaper.
The Guardian additionally quoted Nura Sediqe, an assistant professor in American politics at Michigan State College, who mentioned: “Muslims are cut up. They’re not all voting third get together, however let’s think about a 3rd are: then you definately’ve obtained as much as 50,000 votes that had historically gone to the Democrats transferring away. So if the margin is as slim because it was final time, it could have an effect on the Democratic get together.”
On Friday, the European Inexperienced household, together with Inexperienced events throughout Europe, launched a joint assertion calling on Stein to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris. “We’re clear that Kamala Harris is the one candidate who can block Donald Trump and his anti-democratic, authoritarian insurance policies from the White Home,” the assertion learn.
Nonetheless, Kyle Kopko, an adjunct professor of political science at Elizabethtown School in Pennsylvania advised Al Jazeera that whereas Stein can, in principle, swing the election, in practise it relies on how shut the election outcomes are.
It should be an “terribly shut election” for her to swing the vote, Kopko mentioned.
Have votes for Stein swung elections earlier than?
Stein contested the 2016 election and gained 132,000 votes throughout battleground states Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Collectively, the three states are value 44 Electoral votes.
In these three states, Democrat Hilary Clinton misplaced by a mixed 77,000 votes. Regardless of successful the favored vote, due to this fact, Clinton misplaced the Electoral School vote to Trump, who gained 304 votes in contrast with Clinton’s 227.
The Republican chief beat Clinton in Michigan with a 0.3 proportion level margin of victory, in Pennsylvania with a 0.7 level margin of victory and in Wisconsin with a 0.7 level margin. These slim victories earned him 44 Electoral votes mixed from the three states.
In November 2016, an evaluation cited by Vox advised that if each Stein voter had voted for Clinton as an alternative, she might have gained Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and due to this fact, the election.
Kopko mentioned this is likely to be deceptive, nevertheless. If Stein had not been on the poll, it’s unlikely that each Stein voter would have voted for Clinton. “Some voters could be disillusioned and never vote in any respect, or discover one other third get together candidate to vote for,” he mentioned.
Produce other third-party candidates affected election outcomes?
Within the 2000 US presidential election, Inexperienced Social gathering candidates Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke contested the election on the get together’s ticket and ended up successful 2.7 p.c of the favored vote. Nader made inroads in swing states Florida and New Hampshire, and it’s believed that this allowed the states to modify from the Democrats to the Republicans.
This fed hypothesis that the Inexperienced Social gathering ticket ate away the vote share for Democrat Al Gore to bolster a Republican George Bush win. The Inexperienced Social gathering denied this.
Gore gained greater than half 1,000,000 votes and conceded solely after a monthlong authorized battle.
The 2-party political system has made it tough for third events to make a dent in election outcomes.
Solely 4 third-party candidates have been in a position to win Electoral School votes since 1920. They’re – Robert La Follette, who gained 13 Electoral votes in 1924; Strom Thurmond, who gained 39 in 1948; George Wallace, who gained 45 in 1968; and John Hospers, who gained one Electoral vote forged by a faithless elector in 1972.
