Enroly, the platform that automates CAS, visa and arrival processes for over a 3rd of the UK sector, has launched information to The PIE Information overlaying the 2024 September consumption.
The information represents the efficiency of 59 establishments, comprising each universities and pathway suppliers, and covers 338,669 distinctive college students.
CAS issuance is down 25.9% yr on yr throughout associate establishments. Nevertheless, this can be a important enchancment in comparison with the stark 51.55% decline beforehand reported in Might 2024.
The previous authorities’s “speedy evaluate” of the Graduate Route visa alongside different restrictive insurance policies, considerably lowered confidence within the UK as a examine vacation spot throughout the first half of the yr.
Nevertheless, the choice to guard post-study work rights, a change in authorities and disruptive insurance policies in Australia and Canada have since triggered a late restoration for the UK sector.
Declines in CAS issuance have been pushed by important regional slowdowns in curiosity together with West Africa (down 58.22%), which continues to be decimated as a supply market by the devaluation of the Nigerian foreign money.
Unconditional acceptances from key supply markets China (down 20.03%) and India (down 36.86%) are additionally crucially down in opposition to 2023.
| Area | CAS Issuance (YoY variance) |
| West Africa | –58.22% |
| East Asia | –19.84% |
| South Asia | –29.7% |
| Southeast Asia | –2.16% |
In distinction, East Africa stood out as an space of progress, with CAS issuance growing by 27.87% in October 2024.
Kenya confirmed spectacular progress with a 43% rise in CAS issuance, persevering with its upward trajectory from the January 2024 consumption, the place CAS issuance had already grown by 32.6%.
| Supply nation | CAS Issuance (YoY variance) |
| Nigeria | -60.11% |
| India | -36.86% |
| Bangladesh | -31.73% |
| China | -20.03% |
| Pakistan | -24.49% |
The information additionally means that London establishments might have been insulated in opposition to the decline, exhibiting a stronger efficiency than the general sector common, with a 18.97% decline within the variety of CAS issued, in comparison with Scotland (down 53.22%) and Wales (down 50.81%), which fared a lot worse.
Nevertheless these statistics can be skewed by the proportion of college companions that use Enroly from these areas.
The share of profitable purposes within the information supported by an agent declined 67.84% yr on yr, whereas the share of direct purposes grew (32.16%). Simply three mega-agents supported a whopping 17.09% of scholars who had a CAS issued, whereas seven different brokers accounted for an extra 9.91%.
Visa refusal charges throughout all nationalities remained low, averaging 1.7%, with constant developments throughout each agent and direct recruitment channels.
Nevertheless, reviews of visa delays for candidates from markets like Pakistan may sign poorer conversion from CAS issuance to enrolment than this information suggests.
Jeffrey Williams, CEO and co-founder of Enroly, stated: “Whereas numbers are down in comparison with the distinctive highs of 2023, this September consumption seemingly displays the brand new baseline for the sector.
“Universities, brokers, and repair suppliers have labored tirelessly, and getting to those numbers has been a real collaborative effort by all stakeholders in what has not been a straightforward yr.”
Whereas numbers are down in comparison with the distinctive highs of 2023, this September consumption seemingly displays the brand new baseline for the sector
Jeffrey Williams, Enroly
Consideration will now flip to monitoring the January 2025 consumption, with early Enroly information exhibiting indicators of progress.
Deposit funds have barely elevated by 3.27% in comparison with this time final yr, seemingly pushed by deferred college students who didn’t arrive within the UK for his or her autumn course begin date.
“Itʼs encouraging to see promising indicators for January 2025, giving us all hope for continued progress within the months forward,ˮ stated Williams.
Watch an unique dwell PIE webinar on Friday 25 October, 10am BST as we unpack this information with representatives from Enroly, the College of East Anglia and Durham College. Register your free place right here.
