The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the NFL’s hottest offense nobody is speaking about

For the second season in a row, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are using into the playoffs on a scorching (and crucial) late-season stretch.

By means of Week 10, Todd Bowles’ group was 4-6, successfully three video games behind the 6-4 Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South lead because of Atlanta’s head-to-head tiebreaker. Chris Godwin was misplaced for the season with a grotesque ankle damage, whereas Mike Evans missed a month with a hamstring pressure. Hopes of a fourth straight division title weren’t wanting nice, however the mixture of their 6-1 end and the Falcons’ collapse flipped every thing of their favor. By slotting in because the No. 3 seed, the Buccaneers additionally keep away from enjoying the 14-win Minnesota Vikings within the wild card and top-seeded Detroit Lions within the Divisional Spherical, which is the place they had been felled final 12 months.

The unquestioned primary catalyst for Tampa Bay’s resurgence is its prolific offense, which has proven itself to be Tremendous Bowl caliber regardless of little fanfare.

Liam Coen has elevated the Buccaneers offense to elite standing

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Former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales had great success turning round Baker Mayfield’s profession, which netted him a head teaching job with the Carolina Panthers and despatched Tampa Bay on a quest for its third offensive coordinator in as many seasons.

Enter Liam Coen, one other department off the heralded Sean McVay tree. Technically, he was employed after being the College of Kentucky offensive coordinator, however he spent 4 seasons with McVay on the Los Angeles Rams employees, together with a one-year stint as OC in 2022.

The early returns have been extraordinarily spectacular and resulted in lots of fired cannons at Raymond James Stadium.

• Fourth in factors scored (2023 rating: twentieth)
• Fifth in factors per drive (2023 rating: sixteenth)
• Fourth in crimson zone landing proportion (2023 rating: thirtieth)
• First in third-down conversions (2023 rating: tenth)
• Seventh general in DVOA – fifth in go, eighth in rush (2023 rating: twentieth – sixteenth in go, twenty eighth in rush)
• Fifth general in EPA/play – fifth in go, sixth in rush (2023 rating: twelfth general – eighth in go, twenty seventh in rush)
• Third in yards per play (2023 rating: nineteenth)

These are hallmarks of an offense that’s firing on all cylinders.

Coen’s success has already garnered curiosity from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who’ve requested an interview for his or her vacant head teaching place.

The Buccaneers have top-of-the-line offensive strains within the NFL

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Led by standout deal with Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay’s offensive line is without doubt one of the league’s strongest. They’re certainly one of simply six groups to rank within the high 10 in each go and run block win price, and completed third in PFF’s offensive line rankings. Wirfs was his typical excellent self and didn’t permit a sack all season.

Exterior of Wirfs, who’s the highest-paid offensive lineman within the NFL, the remainder of Tampa Bay’s starters are on low-cost contracts. Middle Graham Barton, proper deal with Luke Goedeke, and proper guard Cody Mauch are all on their rookie offers, whereas left guard Ben Bredeson was a $3 million signing in free company. It’s wanting like a vibrant way forward for Tampa’s largely homegrown line.

Bucky Irving is the NFL’s greatest rookie operating again

Final 12 months’s Buccaneers offense relied closely on Baker Mayfield and the passing sport to operate. Their speeding assault ranked final in complete yards and yards per carry, with superior metrics portray a equally ugly image of their struggles to determine a floor sport.

This 12 months’s Buccaneers speeding offense is deadly. Former Oregon star Bucky Irving was the lone rookie operating again to achieve 1,000 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and rating within the high 10 amongst all operating backs in success price. He’s additionally Tampa Bay’s first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin in 2015 and leads the NFL in missed deal with price.

Whereas Rachaad White is technically nonetheless the starter, Irving has had nearly all of the carries all through the season. White is having his personal profession 12 months as a pass-catching again, with six touchdowns by way of the air to go together with his 613 speeding yards on 4.3 yards per carry, by far his best season on the bottom.

Whereas Irving and White aren’t on the extent of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Bucs have seemingly discovered themselves their very own model of “Sonic and Knuckles.”

Baker Mayfield is having the most effective 12 months of his profession

If final 12 months was the profession revival of Mayfield as a viable NFL starter, this 12 months was the second the previous primary general decide established himself as an above-average quarterback.

Below Coen’s steering, Mayfield has posted profession highs in completion price (71.4%), landing passes (41), passing yards (4,500), adjusted web yards/try (7.13), and rush yards (368). He sealed Tampa Bay’s playoff berth with an astonishing 1st and 20 dime to rookie receiver Jalen McMillan.

Not each throw has been that tough for Baker. Coen has made life a lot simpler for his quarterback. The Buccaneers had been one of many NFL’s worst play-action groups in 2023, however have since improved to twelfth in EPA/dropback this season (in response to NextGenStats). Tampa Bay additionally leads the NFL in yards off of display screen passes (per Sports activities Information Options).

With Godwin’s absence, Mayfield has clearly relied totally on Mike Evans as his greatest receiver, however different non-Evans receiving targets have needed to step as much as the plate nearly by committee. After a quiet begin to his first season, Jalen McMillan has scored seven touchdowns over the past 5 weeks, essentially the most of any receiver within the NFL throughout that span. The likes of Payne Durham and Devin Culp have needed to assume the function of pass-catching tight ends because of Cade Otton’s knee damage. The Bucs have had 10 totally different targets catch at the least 10 passes, greater than all however 4 groups on the season.

There’s, in fact, no such factor as a flawless unit. Aside from accidents, the most important problem for the Buccaneers offense has been ball safety. Mayfield tied with Kirk Cousins for the league lead in interceptions with 16, and the Bucs as a group have coughed it up 23 instances. They’ve had struggles towards stronger defenses just like the Denver Broncos, who held them to simply 7 factors at dwelling, and a wholesome Detroit Lions protection, though Tampa Bay was capable of pull off an upset win by way of resolute defending within the crimson zone. Their lack of sturdy, dependable receiving depth outdoors of Evans has led to bother beating man protection. That is additionally an offense that thrashed the Philadelphia Eagles again in Week 4 and put up over 500 yards and 40 factors on the highway towards the Los Angeles Chargers, the league’s primary scoring protection.

If there’s something holding the Buccaneers again, it’s their lackluster go protection, which is without doubt one of the league’s worst by DVOA and yards allowed. Their Wild Card rematch with the Washington Commanders on Sunday night time has the makings of a shootout between two high-powered offenses and underwhelming defenses. If they will get previous Jayden Daniels and firm as they did in Week 1, the Bucs may very well be that darkish horse group able to making an sudden run to Convention Championship Sunday.