The Houston Texans have been one of many nice surprises of the 2023 NFL season, charging their option to an unlikely AFC South title and eventual journey to the Divisional Spherical. Quarterback C.J. Stroud gained Offensive Rookie of the Yr, whereas edge rusher Will Anderson Jr took Defensive Rookie of the Yr. It was greater than logical to choose DeMeco Ryans’ workforce as doubtlessly AFC Championship, if not Tremendous Bowl-caliber in 2024.
After Week 12’s horrendous 32-27 residence loss to the Tennessee Titans, it’s clear that these aspirations have been a bit of too lofty.
Houston presently has the worst file (7-5) and level differential (+17) of any of the AFC division leaders. They’ve misplaced three out of their final 4, together with consecutive residence video games through which the protection picked off Jared Goff 5 instances and sacked Will Levis eight instances (plus a pick-six), in addition to a primetime embarrassment towards the New York Jets.
Let’s peel again the onion and see why the Texans seem like pretenders and never contenders.
C.J. Stroud is beneath siege, and he’s regressed
A part of why Stroud was magnificent as a rookie was his move safety. Houston’s offensive line was not elite, however Stroud was seventeenth in strain fee as a rookie at 35.5% (per NFL Professional). That fee has climbed to 41%, good for third alongside fellow AFC South quarterbacks Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. Stroud’s common time to strain is sixth-fastest within the NFL, so it’s not a case of him repeatedly holding onto the ball too lengthy. The Texans offensive line is graded below-average each in move and run blocking, with proper guard Shaq Mason pinned for seven sacks allowed (probably the most of any guard within the NFL). Predictably, they’re a mediocre passing offense and a nasty speeding offense by EPA/play.
Whereas Stroud is much from a legal responsibility, he’s positively in a stoop. He’s been worse throughout the board when it comes to interception fee, yards per recreation, completion fee, EPA/play, QBR (now twenty fifth), sack fee, and his adjusted internet yards/try has dipped from 7.47 (third-best in 2023) to only 5.63 (twenty third).
The offensive line woes don’t absolutely clarify away Stroud’s struggles. This crucial interception towards the Detroit Lions was all on Stroud’s underthrow of an open receiver, whereas his second of two picks within the Titans loss was a nasty learn and a worse throw.
There was at all times extra room for Stroud to regress than to enhance upon one of many nice rookie quarterback seasons in NFL historical past, however the falloff has been steep sufficient to carry Stroud again from becoming a member of the elite tier any time quickly.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik goes from future head coach to the new seat?
Final offseason, the Texans offensive coordinator was a head coach candidate earlier than finally signing a brand new contract with Houston. This season, Slowik has come beneath fireplace for his offense’s downturn. The utilization (or, at instances, overuse) of the run recreation has been criticized, most notably of their collapse towards the Detroit Lions, when Joe Mixon put up solely 46 yards on 25 carries.
Houston can also be one of many least-efficient offenses on 1st and 2nd downs, which is without doubt one of the causes they face a median of over 8 yards to go on third downs (second-worst behind the Seattle Seahawks). One other main decline from final season is the explosive passing recreation. Stroud was elite at producing huge performs in 2023, however that’s not the case in 2024.
An offense that may’t run the ball constantly, can’t convert on third downs, can’t produce explosive performs, and routinely commits drive-killing penalties is one that can’t contend. Slowik in all probability isn’t in peril of being fired at season’s finish, however he’s definitely not the new commodity he was a yr in the past.
The Texans are extraordinarily undisciplined and sloppy
Turnovers have typically not been a difficulty for the Texans; they rank in the course of the pack with 14. Nevertheless, Houston is second in accepted penalties with 92, together with 34 pre-snap penalties. Left sort out Laremy Tunsil, one of the best participant on the Texans offensive line, leads the NFL in whole penalties (17) and is the one participant with no less than 10 false begins.
Maybe no sequence of occasions exemplifies the Texans’ ongoing failure to execute than the final 5 minutes of the Titans recreation:
- A would-be go-ahead landing from Stroud to Nico Collins is worn out when to an unlawful shift penalty through which two Texans went in movement directly.
- Texans middle Jarret Patterson commits a holding penalty that turned 2nd and 10 on the Tennessee 11 to 1st and 20 on the 21.
- Out of the two-minute warning, kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn misses the tying area objective from 28 yards out, making him the one kicker within the NFL with a number of misses from inside 30 yards this season.
- Security M.J. Stewart commits an unlawful blindside block on the following Titans punt, backing the Texans up from the 15 to the 8 with 1:29 left.
- C.J. Stroud takes consecutive sacks, together with a Dan Orlovsky-esque run out of the tip zone that ends all hope of a comeback.
“The damaging stuff continues to harm us,” DeMeco Ryans mentioned earlier this week. “There’s no hidden agenda or something, it’s simply get it cleaned up and get it fastened.”
The Texans’ protection is giving up too many explosive performs
Houston has seemingly adopted the defensive model of “growth or bust.” By way of DVOA and EPA/play, this is without doubt one of the higher models within the NFL versus the run and move. And but, they’re one of many worst at permitting explosive performs. They’ve conceded a league-worst 14 passing touchdowns of 20+ yards, 4 greater than the second-worst Jaguars. Add of their thirtieth ranked red-zone protection and you’ve got a gifted protection that’s simply fifteenth in factors allowed regardless of spectacular superior metrics.
Key accidents to key gamers on the Houston Texans
In equity to the Texans, they’ve been affected by accidents to their greatest gamers. High broad receiver Nico Collins solely simply returned from injured reserve after a hamstring drawback value him 5 video games, whereas huge offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs’ season led to October after an ACL tear.
Having simply gotten Will Anderson Jr again after lacking two video games with an ankle harm, the Texans misplaced standout defensive again Jalen Pitre indefinitely to {a partially} torn pectoral muscle. Regardless of a fast turnaround from the doldrums of the 2020-2022 seasons, Houston’s roster nonetheless lacks the depth to face up to main absences.
However Houston will nonetheless win the AFC South… or will they?
Houston’s saving grace is the truth that, as ordinary, the AFC South isn’t a great division. New York Occasions’ playoff machine has the Texans at 94% odds to achieve the postseason, and for good cause. The Titans and Jaguars are realistically out of it, in order that leaves you with the 5-7 Indianapolis Colts, who’ve been swept by the Texans and thus should not have a head-to-head tiebreaker. Meaning the Colts should be three video games higher than the Texans over the remainder of the season.
It appears impossible (principally due to the Colts), and but… not inconceivable?
Texans’ closing 5 opponents: at Jaguars, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans
Colts’ closing 5 opponents: at Patriots, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars
As mediocre because the Colts have been whether or not it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco at quarterback, Indianapolis may win 4 of those video games, with solely the Denver Broncos matchup wanting particularly tough. Houston can be underdogs to the Chiefs and Ravens, whereas abruptly the Dolphins are resurgent. The Titans and Jaguars video games are hardly locks given the prior loss to Tennessee and a comeback win within the first Jaguars showdown.
There’s latest precedent for inconceivable collapses within the AFC South. Two years in the past the Titans squandered a four-game division result in the Jaguars, who gained out from 4-8 whereas Tennessee misplaced out at 7-3. Final yr, the Texans seized on the Jaguars’ implosion from 8-3 and the No. 1 seed within the AFC to 9-8 and out of the playoffs fully. It isn’t far-fetched to consider that the Texans may expertise the identical destiny because the Jags and Titans earlier than them.
Houston doesn’t have a drawback; it has a number of issues, and sure too many to rapidly remedy as a way to be a contender this yr.
