Among the world’s largest document firms have expressed bemusement over the outcomes of a survey within the Nordics which recommend that paying subscribers to music providers in Sweden are in decline.
Final week, MBW reported on a YouGov survey carried out with Scandinavian assortment societies throughout Might 2024, through which 4,000 people had been quizzed throughout the Nordics.
These interviews prompt a downturn within the variety of folks paying for music streaming in Sweden.
Of the YouGov ballot’s respondents primarily based in Sweden, 56% stated they had been Premium subscribers to a music subscription service, down from59% in mid-2022.
In the meantime, the identical 2024 survey additionally prompt that Swedes had been rising extra economically delicate to the rising value tags of music streaming subscriptions.
But these outcomes, in accordance with main firms within the international recorded music enterprise, must be seen as a survey-specific aberration reasonably than an indicator of a wider development.
MBW has seen inner knowledge from international recorded music firms (knowledgeable by knowledge provided by their streaming companions) which exhibits that the entire variety of paying account holders of audio music streaming subscriptions in Sweden as of Might this yr was roughly2.87 million.
On the finish of 2022 (December), this determine – which displays subscribers throughout Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Deezer and SoundCloud – stood at round 2.80 million. (These numbers don’t embody free trialists.)
“We’re not seeing explosive progress in Sweden as of late, however we’re seeing stability.”
Report firm government
As one document firm government informed MBW whereas presenting this knowledge: “No, we’re not seeing explosive progress in Sweden as of late, however we’re seeing stability. Regardless of value rises, the general development up to now two years is barely upward.”
One other document firm exec stated merely: “The YouGov knowledge doesn’t vibe with our personal.”
Different inner document firm knowledge we’ve seen displays the entire variety of paid-for streaming accounts in Sweden — i.e. it consists of customers of Household Plans and so forth., who don’t pay the invoice for his or her subscription however use the providers.
Once more, this knowledge has been obtained by our sources immediately from streaming suppliers out there.
It exhibits that there have been 5.06 millionwhole customers of paid-for accounts in Sweden as of Might 2024; that was up from 4.52 million in June 2022.
The document firm execs we spoke to declined to touch upon the document as a result of, as talked about, this streaming knowledge from Sweden has been provided to them – beneath situation of confidentiality – by digital companions.
Our sources’ figures do appear to tally, nevertheless, with different accessible proof.
MBW contacted industry-standard market monitor Luminate right this moment (July 2) for his or her response to the YouGov survey.
Luminate doesn’t publicly disclose subscriber numbers for providers, however it does carefully observe whole streams of each paid-for and ad-supported accounts in a number of markets globally.
Picture Credit score: Maarten de Boer
“When trying on the first half of 2024, our knowledge exhibits that premium on-demand streams in Sweden, which means people who got here from paid subscriptions, grew in quantity by greater than 700 million when in comparison with the primary of half of 2023, or by +4.3% [YoY].”
Rob Jonas, Luminate
Rob Jonas, CEO of Luminate, revealed: “When trying on the first half of 2024, our knowledge exhibits that premium on-demand streams in Sweden, which means people who got here from paid subscriptions, grew in quantity by greater than 700 million when in comparison with the primary of half of 2023, or by +4.3% [YoY].”
Jonas added: “On common, premium streams made up 86% of on-demand streaming exercise in Sweden through the first half of 2024, with ad-supported exercise representing the remaining 14%.
“That [premium vs. ad-supported] share breakdown stays in step with 2023 knowledge.”
What else has MBW discovered from the confidential service-level knowledge we’ve seen from Sweden these previous couple of days?
Spotify has by far probably the most subscribers of any service in Sweden, with a market share of roughly 88%.
And right here’s a giant one: Our sources agree that Sweden is a worldwide {industry} market-leader in the case of the cancellation charges – or ‘churn’ charges – of paying music streaming subscribers.
In response to the information we’ve seen, Spotify’s Premium churn charge in Sweden sits at round 1.0% of all subscribers. That compares, for instance, to roughly 2.0% in the USA.
(There was a fractional soar on this churn charge in each international locations after Spotify elevated its costs in each Sweden and the US final yr, however this has since settled again to ~1.0% in Sweden and ~2.0% within the US, in accordance with our sources.)
So, with all of that in thoughts, how come YouGov’s knowledge appeared to point out a transparent decline in respondents who use a paid-for music service in Sweden in 2024 vs. 2022?
As we identified in our preliminary write-up, that could possibly be a case of pattern measurement: Keep in mind, the YouGov survey was of 4,000 folks throughout the Nordics, with solely a portion of those in Sweden – a rustic of over 10 million folks.
There is perhaps one other clarification, too.
The YouGov survey particularly gathered knowledge from music streaming customers in Sweden who had been ‘Premium subscribers [or] bundlers’.
One document firm insider prompt that, over the previous 12-18 months, Spotify has actively cracked down on account sharing on its Household plan, in instances the place non-related people who find themselves not residing in the identical deal with share accounts.
Inside YouGov’s pattern measurement, this may increasingly have resulted in a small decline in Premium account customers in Sweden.
The broader market proof, although, factors to a extra optimistic development: as MBW wrote the opposite day, IFPI knowledge exhibits that Sweden’s industry-wide recorded music subscription streaming revenues truly elevated by over 6% yr over yr in 2023.
(Sweden was the world’s sixteenth largest recorded music market by income final yr, in accordance with IFPI.)
In 2021, two years earlier than it did the identical within the US, Spotify raised its month-to-month particular person Premium value in Sweden by 10%, up from 99 SEK (round USD $9.99) to 109 SEK (round $10.99).
One other value rise in Sweden arrived final yr.
As we speak, Swedish clients who take up an particular person Premium subscription are supplied a month’s free trial to ad-free Spotify. After this, they need to pay 119 SEK (round USD $11.21) per 30 days.Music Enterprise Worldwide
