Predictions From IEEE’s 2024 Know-how Megatrends Report

It’s time to begin making ready your group and staff for the consequences of synthetic basic intelligence, sustainability, and digital transformation. In keeping with IEEE’s 2024 Know-how Megatrends report, the three applied sciences will change how firms, governments, and universities function and can have an effect on what new expertise staff want.

A megatrend, which integrates a number of tendencies that evolve over 20 years or so, is predicted to have a considerable impact on society, expertise, ecology, economics, and extra.

Greater than 50 specialists from Asia, Australia, Europe, Latin America, the Center East, and america supplied their views for the report. They signify all 47 of IEEE’s fields of curiosity and are available from academia, the general public sector, and the non-public sector. The report consists of insights and alternatives about every megatrend and the way industries may gain advantage.

The specialists in contrast their insights to expertise predictions from Google Traits; the IEEE Laptop Society and the IEEE Xplore Digital Library; and the U.S. Patent and Trademark Workplace.

“We made predictions about expertise and megatrends and correlated them with different basic megatrends akin to economical, ecological, and sociopolitical. They’re all intertwined,” says IEEE Fellow Dejan Milojicic, a member of the IEEE Future Instructions Committee and vice chairman at Hewlett Packard Labs in Milpitas, Calif. He’s additionally a Hewlett Packard Enterprise Fellow.

The advantages and downsides of synthetic basic intelligence

Synthetic basic intelligence (AGI) consists of ChatGPT, autonomous robots, wearable and implantable applied sciences, and digital twins.

Training, well being care, and manufacturing are among the sectors that may profit most from AGI, the report says.

For academia, the expertise might help broaden distant studying, doubtlessly changing bodily lecture rooms and resulting in extra personalised schooling for college kids.

In well being care, the expertise might result in personalised drugs, tailor-made affected person remedy plans, and sooner drug discovery. AGI additionally might assist scale back prices and enhance efficiencies, the report says.

Manufacturing can use the expertise to enhance high quality management, scale back downtime, and enhance manufacturing. The time to market might be considerably shortened, the report says.

At this time’s AI programs are specialised and slender, so to reap the advantages, specialists say, the widespread adoption of curated datasets, advances in AI {hardware}, and new algorithms will probably be wanted. It is going to require interdisciplinary collaborations throughout laptop science, engineering, ethics, and philosophy, the report says.

The report factors out drawbacks with AGI, together with an absence of knowledge privateness, moral challenges, and misuse of content material.

One other concern is job displacement and the necessity for workers to be retrained. AGI requires extra AI programmers and information scientists however fewer help workers and system directors, the report notes.

Adopting digital applied sciences

Digital transformation tech consists of autonomous applied sciences, ubiquitous connectivity, and sensible environments.

The areas that may profit most from increasing their use of computer systems and different digital units, the specialists say, are building, schooling, well being care, and manufacturing.

The development trade might use constructing info modeling (BIM), which generates digital variations of workplace buildings, bridges, and different constructions to enhance security and effectivity.

Instructional establishments already use electronics akin to digital whiteboards, laptops, tablets, and smartphones to reinforce the training expertise. However the specialists level out that colleges aren’t utilizing the instruments but for persevering with education schemes wanted to coach employees on how you can use new instruments and expertise.

“Most schooling processes are the identical now as they had been within the final century, at a time when we have to change to lifelong studying,” the specialists say.

“We made predictions about expertise and megatrends, however we correlated them with different basic megatrends akin to economical, ecological, and sociopolitical. They’re all intertwined.” —Dejan Milojicic

The report says the digital transformation will want extra staff to oversee automation, in addition to these with expertise in analytics, however fewer operators and employees liable for sustaining outdated programs.

The well being discipline has began changing to digital data, however extra might be executed, the report says, akin to utilizing computer-aided design to develop medication and prosthetics and utilizing BIM instruments to design hospitals.

Manufacturing may gain advantage through the use of computer-aided-design information to create digital representations of product prototypes.

There are some issues with digital transformation, the specialists acknowledge. There aren’t sufficient chips and batteries to construct all of the units and programs wanted, for instance, and never each group or authorities can afford the digital instruments. Additionally, folks in underdeveloped areas who lack connectivity wouldn’t have entry to them, resulting in a widening of the digital divide. Different folks may resist due to privateness, spiritual, or life-style issues, the specialists be aware.

Addressing the local weather disaster

Know-how might help engineer social and environmental change. Sustainability functions embody clear renewable vitality, decarbonization, and vitality storage.

Practically half of organizations all over the world have a company-wide sustainability technique, however solely 18 p.c have well-defined targets and a timetable for how you can implement them, the report says. About half of firms lack the instruments or experience to deploy sustainable options. In the meantime, info and communication applied sciences’ vitality consumption is rising, utilizing about 10 p.c of worldwide electrical energy.

The specialists predict that transitioning to extra sustainable info and communication applied sciences will result in solely new companies. Blockchain expertise might be used to optimize surplus vitality produced by microgrids, for instance, in the end resulting in extra jobs, less-expensive vitality, and vitality safety. Early leaders in sustainability are already making use of digital applied sciences akin to AI, large information, blockchain, laptop imaginative and prescient, and the Web of Issues to assist operationalize sustainability.

Workers aware of these applied sciences will probably be wanted, the report predicts, including that engineers who can design programs which might be extra vitality environment friendly and environmentally pleasant will probably be in demand.

Among the challenges that might hinder such efforts embody an absence of rules, an absence of incentives to encourage folks to develop into eco-friendly, and the excessive value of sustainable applied sciences.

How organizations can work collectively

All three megatrends ought to be thought of synergistically, the specialists say. For instance, AGI strategies could be utilized to sustainable and digitally reworked applied sciences. Sustainability is a key side of expertise, together with AGI. And digital transformation must be regularly up to date with AGI and sustainability options, the report says.

The report included a number of suggestions for a way academia, governments, industries, {and professional} organizations can work collectively to advance the three applied sciences.

To handle the necessity to retrain staff, for instance, trade ought to work with schools and universities to coach the workforce and practice instructors on the applied sciences.

To advance the science that helps the megatrend applied sciences, academia must work extra intently with trade on analysis initiatives, the specialists recommend. In flip, governments ought to foster analysis by academia and not-for-profit organizations.

Corporations ought to advise authorities officers on how you can finest regulate the applied sciences. To realize widespread acceptance of the applied sciences, the dangers and the advantages ought to be defined to the general public to keep away from misinformation, the specialists say. As well as, processes, practices, and academic supplies must be created to handle moral points surrounding the applied sciences.

“As an entire, these megatrends ought to deal with serving to trade,” Milojicic says. “Authorities and academia are essential in their very own methods, but when we are able to make trade profitable, every part else will come from that. Business will fund academia, and governments will assist trade.”

Skilled organizations together with IEEE might want to develop technical requirements and street maps on the three areas, he says. A street map is a strategic have a look at the long-term panorama of a expertise, what the developments are, and what the probabilities are.

The megatrends affect which initiatives IEEE goes to discover, Milojicic says, “which might doubtlessly result in future street maps and requirements. In a method, we’re doing the prework to organize what they might ultimately standardize.”

Dejan Milojicic discusses findings from IEEE’s 2024 Know-how Megatrends report.

Dissemination and schooling are crucial

The group encourages a broad dissemination of the three megatrends to keep away from widening the digital divide.

“The velocity of change might be sooner than most individuals can adapt to—which might result in concern and aggression towards expertise,” the specialists say. “Broad schooling is crucial for expertise adoption.”