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Bratislava, Slovakia — Ukraine will block Russian fuel provides by way of its territory in a number of days, successfully halting its transit to Slovakia, Moldova and, to some extent, Hungary.
Kyiv stated it might not renew an settlement on Russian fuel transit expiring on December 31 as Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted final week Kyiv wouldn’t let Moscow “earn extra billions on our blood”.
Sturdy dependence
Russian fuel accounted for lower than 10 p.c of the European Union’s fuel imports in 2023.
In 2021, a yr earlier than the invasion began, it made up over 40 p.c.
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However jap European EU members nonetheless rely largely on Russian fuel for geographical and political causes.
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READ: Slovakia says able to host Russia-Ukraine peace talks
EU and NATO members Hungary and Slovakia have maintained shut ties with the Kremlin regardless of the invasion.
Russia has been delivering fuel to Europe by two routes since a sequence of underwater explosions in 2022 broken the Nord Stream pipeline that carried fuel to northern Germany by way of the Baltic Sea.
The TurkStream pipeline below the Black Sea and its mainland extension Balkan Stream provide Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary.
Provides by way of Ukraine are based mostly on a five-year contract signed by Ukraine’s Naftogaz and GTSOU pipeline operator with Russian large Gazprom in 2019, which is able to now expire.
Official information put fuel quantity transported by this route in 2023 at 14.65 billion cubic meters, barely lower than half of all Russian fuel flowing into Europe.
Slovakia on the entrance line
Austria, which nonetheless purchased 90 p.c of its fuel from Russia final summer season, terminated its cope with Gazprom in December after six many years.
“Austria has solved it by quasi cancelling the Russian contract, citing its previous non-performance,” Andras Deak, an power safety professional at Ludovika College in Budapest, informed AFP.
Neighboring Slovakia is “sticking to the long-term contract, which, if the Ukrainians reduce off transit, won’t be… fulfilled,” he added.
Slovakia’s nationalist-leaning Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Moscow final weekend to debate provides, following a spat with Zelensky at an EU summit in Brussels.
Zelensky then stated Fico “desires to assist Putin earn cash to fund the warfare”.
In addition to geopolitical causes, Bratislava prefers to import Russian fuel “as a result of it’s cheaper”, stated Alexander Duleba from the Slovak Overseas Coverage Affiliation.
He stated Gazprom paid for fuel transit by means of Ukraine, but when Slovakia purchased fuel from different suppliers, it must pay for transit itself.
SPP, an organization supplying fuel to 1.5 million Slovak households, stated it might discover different suppliers.
However “every other various will likely be considerably costlier”, its spokesman Ondrej Sebesta informed AFP.
He put the additional value at 150 million euros ($156 million), primarily in transit charges.
Moldova on alert
Moldova is already bracing for power cuts regardless of taking steps to diversify provides.
The previous Soviet republic will get 70 p.c of its electrical energy from the Cuciurgan energy station based mostly within the separatist area of Transnistria, which makes use of Russian fuel imported by way of Ukraine.
Moldova’s pro-European President Maia Sandu not too long ago stated that there are different transit routes bypassing Ukraine that Russia might use to ship the fuel.
“However evidently Gazprom shouldn’t be able to hold its contractual obligations,” she added.
Sandu slammed the Kremlin’s “blackmail” presumably aimed toward destabilizing Moldova a number of months earlier than a basic election in 2025.
Moldova, one among Europe’s poorest nations, declared a 60-day state of power emergency in mid-December.
It should purchase energy from neighboring Romania and pay extra.
Hungary virtually protected
In contrast to its neighbors, Hungary receives most Russian fuel by way of TurkStream.
It will get solely a fraction by way of Ukraine and won’t be harm by Kyiv’s determination to dam the provides.
However Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated final week that “we don’t need to hand over” this route due to the cheap value.
Whereas Budapest leads talks with Kyiv and Moscow, Orban recommended his nation would possibly play a “trick” as it might purchase Russian fuel earlier than it enters Ukraine.
“Then what comes by means of Ukrainian territory will not be Russian fuel, however Hungarian,” he added.
Power safety professional Deak stated that Hungary dangers being “left because the final Gazprom shopper within the EU”.
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It would then face mounting “political strain” from the EU to do away with its power dependence on Russia, he added.
