AFC, NFC Championship Video games protection X-factors for Chiefs, Payments, Eagles, Commanders

Convention championship video games are performed in rarefied (and generally skinny) air. The stakes are clearly larger, particular person performs imply extra, and the sport script can veer in extremely unpredictable methods that may resolve issues fairly shortly.

For the 4 groups left within the 2024 season as we flip our consideration to the NFC and AFC Championship video games, it’s additionally about maximizing the efforts of a very powerful gamers on each side of the ball. Some key gamers are key gamers due to place, some due to expertise, and a few due to particular situations that will require them to play the video games of their lives if their groups are to fulfill their objectives of a Tremendous Bowl look.

Given the significance of those X-Components, we’ve expanded the dialogue to incorporate one participant from every staff on each offense and protection. Right here’s one defensive X-Issue for every of the 4 groups that can face off on Sunday for the respect of collaborating in Tremendous Bowl LIX.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 26, at 3:00 p.m. EST

Philadelphia Eagles: EDGE Nolan Smith

When the Eagles chosen Georgia edge-rusher Nolan Smith with the thirty first general choose within the 2023 draft, it was a little bit of a calculated danger. Not simply because there have been questions in regards to the 6’2, 238-pound Smith’s capability to carry as much as the pains of the NFL at his measurement, but in addition as a result of he missed a number of video games in his final season at Georgia with a torn pectoral muscle. Nonetheless, Smith’s standing as mainly a coach within the Bulldogs’ second straight Nationwide Championship season, and the good scouting mix he had, allayed a few of these fears.

Smith was a reserve in Philly’s loaded EDGE rotation in his rookie season, totaling two sacks and 9 complete pressures in 95 pass-rushing snaps. And whereas he was gentle with manufacturing within the first 4 video games of the 2024 season (no sacks and three complete pressures), the sunshine began to come back on in Vic Fangio’s first season because the staff’s defensive coordinator. From Week 11 by way of the Divisional playoffs, Smith has led the staff in sacks with 5, and he ranks third behind Milton Williams and Jalen Carter in complete pressures with 26. To not point out the truth that in two video games towards Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, Smith was in a position to maintain enterprise with two sacks and a number of other different spectacular pressures.

“He’s accomplished an amazing job working, and he’s continuously improved,” Fangio stated this week of Smith’s growth. “The extra you play, the extra you observe, and he’s getting extra snaps now, too, since BG went down. Will get extra observe performs, recreation performs. You get higher. That’s the one approach you get higher is to observe and play. He was enhancing in these first 4 weeks, too. Such as you’ve made observe, it’s come to fruition right here since.”

Smith nonetheless has all that pace and athleticism, and he’s realized to drop the hammer bodily on the NFL degree. Now, there are not any worries.

Washington Commanders: LB Frankie Luvu

Luvu was one in all my favourite defensive gamers to look at within the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Carolina Panthers, as a result of there have been only a few issues he couldn’t do properly – from off-ball run and protection stops to reputable edge rushes. The Commanders have been simply as constructive about Luvu’s potential, as they signed him to a three-year, $31 million contract this offseason. Luvu has accomplished every part attainable to reside as much as it – and extra. This season, he’s amassed eight sacks, 38 complete pressures, 73 tackles, 45 stops, and he’s excelled in all places from the sting to the field to the slot. The Commanders have an excellent linebacker duo in Luvu and Bobby Wagner, however it’s Luvu who permits the protection to be as versatile as it’s.

In two video games towards the Eagles this season, Luvu has been a guided missile far and wide. Two sacks, two tackles for loss, an interception, and tackles, pressures, and stops from in all places.

“That is my first going run for it, for the playoffs,” Luvu stated Tuesday. “And I’m simply attempting to maintain my feelings right here, preserve it impartial, and simply I do know all the fellows are the identical approach.”

Frankie Luvu with much more motivation? That could possibly be a scary thought for any opponent.

Buffalo Payments at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Sunday, January 26, at 6:30 p.m. EST

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: LB Drue Tranquill

More often than not, gamers are X-Components in video games due to their constructive performs and memorable exploits. Within the case of Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill, the story goes a special approach. Within the Buffalo Payments’ 30-21 Week 11 win over the Chiefs, Tranquill – who is generally an excellent participant and a key cog in Steve Spagnuolo’s protection – had a recreation he would possible quite neglect. Buffalo ran the ball 31 occasions for 104 yards and three touchdowns.

It was a nightmare for Tranquill. He missed tackles on every of James Prepare dinner’s two landing runs, and he was out of place on Josh Allen’s 26-yard scramble landing that salted the sport away with 2:27 left within the fourth quarter.

Total, Tranquill has loved a very good season, with three sacks, 18 complete pressures, 61 solo tackles, 30 stops, and customarily stable protection. But when Tranquill doesn’t sq. up in these conditions towards Buffalo’s run recreation this time round – and make no mistake, Buffalo’s run recreation will probably be a really massive deal – that could possibly be a critical obstacle to Kansas Metropolis’s run at a three-peat.

Buffalo Payments: Each security not named Taylor Rapp

For years, when the Payments put their rosters collectively, they may depend on one factor: The NFL’s finest security duo in Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. However as is the case with every part within the NFL, issues change. Within the 2024 season, Buffalo’s security tasks have been coated by Damar Hamlin (whose personal story is unimaginable), 2024 second-round choose Cole Bishop, veteran Cam Lewis, and Taylor Rapp, the previous Los Angeles Rams defender who signed a backup take care of the Payments in 2023, and did sufficient to benefit a three-year, $10,625 million contract this offseason.

With the Friday information that Rapp will probably be out of the AFC Championship Recreation towards the Chiefs because of the hip harm he suffered within the Payments’ divisional spherical win over the Ravens, that latest stability is thrown into anarchy. Rapp has been off the sphere for 301 snaps this season, and his excellence has proven up each in his presence and in his absence. The Payments allowed a Defensive EPA Per Play of +0.07 with Rapp off the sphere, and -0.02 when he was on the market. There are all the time different components in on/off splits, however there’s little doubt that Rapp has been the staff’s finest security this season.

Now, it’s on the Different Guys – Bishop, Hamlin, and Lewis – to select up the slack towards Patrick Mahomes. No massive deal, proper?

Lewis is extra of a field security, however he can line up within the deep third when the Payments go two-high. Hamlin is primarily a deep security, and he’s been higher in protection than some might imagine. And Bishop, who didn’t play within the Week 11 video games between these two groups, can lime up nearly in all places, as was the case when he excelled at Utah.

One factor we do know is that towards two-deep protection this season, Mahomes has accomplished 118 of 177 passes for 1,232 yards, 661 air yards, three touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a passer score of 80.5. And when Mahomes confronted two-deep protection towards the Payments, he accomplished 9 of 14 passes for 71 yards, 39 air yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer score of 47.0.

So, nevertheless the Payments get to two-deep within the rematch, it’ll be as much as everybody else to make it work. Which might finally show the distinction between the Josh Allen-era Payments lastly attending to the Tremendous Bowl, or not.