Bitcoin (BTC) Defends $100K as MicroStrategy Weighs Share Improve

By Omkar Godbole (All occasions ET except indicated in any other case)

Bitcoin held above $100,000, with VET, ENA, LINK and LDO posting notable features a day after President Donald Trump bypassed mentioning crypto or a strategic bitcoin reserve in his inauguration speech.

Alerts from the bitcoin choices market point out heightened expectations for short-term value turbulence alongside indicators of rising threat aversion amongst merchants since Trump’s swearing in, in response to Griffin Ardern, head of choices buying and selling and analysis at crypto monetary platform BloFin.

That could possibly be resulting from a number of causes, together with MicroStrategy’s impending shareholder vote in the present day on increasing its approved shares to assist its bitcoin shopping for technique. As well as, the Financial institution of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to extend charges on Friday, which can strengthen the yen. The late July BOJ price hike torched the foreign money’s rally, destabilizing threat belongings, together with cryptocurrencies.

There’s additionally uncertainty stemming from Trump’s plans to impose tariffs of as much as 25% on Canada and Mexico and the looming debt ceiling though, traditionally, the latter has not had a big bearish influence on threat belongings.

“Markets acquired a stark reminder of life below President Trump, with extra volatility-inducing rhetoric,” QCP Capital mentioned,.

Nonetheless, observers stay optimistic.

“Regardless of a typically disappointing first day for cryptocurrencies below the brand new administration, Bitcoin managed to stay firmly above $101K, sidestepping the dreaded ‘sell-the-news’ impact,” Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, famous. Fournier added that whereas regulatory progress and changes to nationwide reserves could take time, situations are anticipated to enhance within the coming weeks.

The debut of the TRUMP memecoin over the weekend marked “a basic shift within the American digital asset panorama, in the end attracting new consumers, notably into BTC and SOL,” in response to Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Buying and selling.

“This phenomenon might be seen as a twin narrative: a big worth creation in TRUMP, initially pushed by intra-market rotation, which later sparked contemporary capital inflows as basic buyers acknowledged the broader optimistic catalysts for digital belongings,” Benayoun mentioned. Keep alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Jan. 21: MicroStrategy (MSTR) shareholders vote on rising the approved share capital to assist fund bitcoin purchases.
  • Jan. 23: First deadline for SEC determination on NYSE Arca’s proposal to listing and commerce shares of Grayscale Solana Belief (GSOL), a closed-end belief, as an ETF.
  • Jan. 25: First deadline for SEC selections on proposals for 4 spot solana ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF and VanEck Solana Belief, that are all sponsored by Cboe BZX Change.
  • Jan. 29: Ice Open Community (ION) mainnet launch.
  • Feb. 4: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) stories This fall 2024 earnings.
  • Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 pepecoin.
  • Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Community’s Holocene exhausting fork community improve for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.
  • Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) stories This fall 2024 earnings.
  • Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) exhausting fork community improve is scheduled to happen at block 4,590,000.
  • Feb. 20: Coinbase International (COIN) stories This fall 2024 earnings.
• Macro
  • Jan. 21, 8:00 a.m.: The U.S. Treasury will begin taking “extraordinary measures” to cease the federal government from breaching the $36.1 trillion debt restrict.
  • Jan. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases December’s Client Worth Index.
    • Core Inflation Charge MoM Prev. -0.1%.
    • Core Inflation Report YoY Prev. 1.6%.
    • Inflation Charge MoM Est. -0.7% vs. Prev. 0%.
    • Inflation Charge YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.9%.
  • Jan. 22, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases December’s Industrial Product Worth Index.
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.6%.
    • PPI YoY Prev. 2.2%.
  • Jan. 22, 10:00 a.m.: The Convention Board releases December’s Main Financial Index (LEI) report for the U.S.
    • MoM Est. -0.1% vs. Prev. 0.3%.

Token Occasions

• Governance votes & calls
  • ApeChain is voting on a revamped governance course of for 75% of the on-chain treasury to be directed to the DAO treasury contract and the remaining 25% to the Ape Basis for administrative and assist functions. Voting started Jan. 17 and can final for 13 days.
  • CoW DAO is discussing the potential allocation of 80 million COW to empower the core treasury group for additional liquidity provisioning, financial alternatives, and the event of the DAO’s product roadmap from 2025 to 2028.
  • Jan. 22: Mantle (MNT) will host a livestream with updates on its 2025 roadmap. at 8 a.m.
• Unlocks
  • Jan. 21: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.6% of circulating provide price $76 million.
  • Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating provide price $626 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 21: Bybit is itemizing Solayer (LAYER).
  • Jan. 22: Jambo (J) is itemizing on OKX, Bitfinex and Bybit.

Conferences:

Token Discuss

By Shaurya Malwa

Donald and Melania Trump’s official memecoins have impressed wannabe token creators to situation tokens based mostly on different relations. One such token themed after son Barron Trump simply rug pulled for tens of millions of {dollars}.

A spoof X account impersonating Barron promoted a BARRON token, which rapidly gained traction reaching a peak market cap of $87 million.

Initially, a big quantity of liquidity was added to make the token seem respectable and encourage buying and selling. Nonetheless, it appears the token was designed to deceive from the beginning. As soon as the token reached a excessive purchase quantity, all liquidity was faraway from the token swimming pools inflicting the value to crash.

On-chain watchers estimated at the very least $1 million price of Solana’s SOL tokens had been extracted within the rug pull, based mostly on preliminary shopping for and remaining promoting transactions.

Even some trade observers had been soak up.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open curiosity in TRUMP perpetual futures has elevated 8%, suggesting the value drop is at the very least partly led by contemporary shorts. Reverse is the case for AAVE as costs have risen alongside an uptick in open curiosity.
• Apart from AAVE, most main cash, together with BTC and ETH, have seen destructive open interest-adjusted CVD, an indication of web promoting strain.
• BTC and ETH calls stay pricier than places, however the name bias is weaker than a day in the past.
• High block trades for the day embrace BTC bull name spreads and a few outright longs in ETH calls, in response to information supply Amberdata, Deribit and Paradigm.

Market Actions

• BTC is down 0.3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $103,280.72 (24hrs: -4.66%)
• ETH is down 0.43% at $3,307.05 (24hrs: -1.97%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.27% at 3,960.57 (24hrs: -5.14%)
• Ether staking yield is up 27 bps at 3.58%
• BTC funding price is at -0.0026% (-2.9% annualized) on OKX

• DXY is down 0.56% at 108.74
• Gold is up 0.36% at $2,718.39/oz
• Silver is unchanged at $30.48/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.32% to 39,027.98
• Hold Seng closed +0.91% to twenty,106.55
• FTSE is unchanged at 8,521.58
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,160.68
• DJIA closed on Friday +0.78% to 43,487.83
• S&P 500 closed +1% to five,996.66
• Nasdaq closed +1.51% to 19,630.20
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed on Monday +0.41% to 25,171.58
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.23% to 2,258.33
• U.S. 10-year Treasury is down 4 bps at 4.59%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.44% at 6,060.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 21,698.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Common Index futures are up 0.33% at 43,841.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 58.70
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03193
• Hashrate (seven-day transferring common): 786 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $60.7
• Complete Charges: 12.37 BTC/ $1.3M
• CME Futures Open Curiosity: 188,825 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 37.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.74%

Technical Evaluation

• BTC stays in bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud regardless of Trump failing to say crypto or strategic BTC reserve Monday.
• The resilience could entice extra consumers to the market, probably resulting in file highs.

Crypto Equities

• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed on Monday at C$31.15 (+4.04%).
• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $396.50 (+8.04%), down 2.22% at $387.70 in pre-market.
• Coinbase International (COIN): closed at $295.48 (+4.92%), down 0.65% at $293.55 in pre-market.
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.91 (+8.8%), down 0.5% at $19.81 in pre-market.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (0.67%), down 0.3% at $13.35 in pre-market.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15 (+2.53%), up 0.47% at $15.07 in pre-market.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.87 (+6.17%), up 0.51% at $11.93 in pre-market.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.37 (+3.13%).
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $64.68 (+11.06%), down 1.52% at $63.70 in pre-market.
• Exodus Motion (EXOD): closed at $38.51 (+1.69%), up 8.47% at $41.77 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

U.S. exchanges had been closed on Jan. 20 in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

The ETF information under is from Jan. 17 and stays unchanged.

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Day by day web circulate: $1072.8 million
• Cumulative web flows: $38.18 billion
• Complete BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Day by day web circulate: $23.9 million
• Cumulative web flows: $2.66 billion
• Complete ETH holdings ~ 3.67 million.

Supply: Farside Buyers

In a single day Flows

Chart of the Day

• The provision of stablecoins on the Solana blockchain has practically doubled since October.
• Most of that’s in USDC, the world’s second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin.

Whereas You Had been Sleeping

• U.S. to Hit Debt Ceiling on Tuesday. Will Bitcoin Soar or Endure? (CoinDesk): The U.S. Treasury begins extraordinary measures to keep away from breaching the $36.1 trillion debt restrict. Traditionally, drawdowns within the Treasury Common Account (TGA), the federal government’s money reserve, have coincided with bitcoin value will increase.
• TRUMP, MELANIA Tokens Plunge 50% as Trump Inauguration Fails to Buoy Bitcoin (CoinDesk): Memecoins TRUMP and MELANIA fell sharply post-inauguration regardless of buying and selling volumes exceeding many main tokens. QCP Capital speculates that TRUMP’s launch on Solana highlights the chain, probably aiding U.S. SOL ETF prospects.
• World Liberty Monetary Buys $112.8 Million in Crypto on Trump’s First Day in Workplace (The Block): On Monday, World Liberty Monetary, a Trump-linked crypto mission, commemorated his inauguration by spending a complete of $112.8M on ETH, wBTC, AAVE, LINK, TRX and ENA.
• Trump’s Plans for Canada, Mexico Tariffs Ship Greenback Greater (The Wall Road Journal): The U.S. greenback rose in opposition to the Canadian greenback and Mexican peso after Trump’s proposed tariffs. Asian markets confirmed blended actions, whereas oil costs fell as Trump pledged expanded U.S. manufacturing.
• ECB’s Kazimir Sees Three to 4 Extra Cuts Beginning Subsequent Week (Bloomberg): Peter Kazimir, an ECB Governing Council member, expects a price reduce subsequent week and presumably three extra. He warns of dangers from U.S. commerce insurance policies and inflationary pressures from import costs.
• China Shares, Yuan Cautiously Agency After Trump Delays Tariffs (Reuters): Chinese language shares and the yuan rose cautiously after Trump prevented imposing quick tariffs, providing short-term aid. China is specializing in technological innovation and stimulating shopper spending to spice up progress.

Within the Ether