Yearly, it looks like a handful of groups don’t belong within the NFL Playoffs, and solely a choose few can win all of it. This yr is not any totally different. There are high-flying offenses, quarterbacks who at all times appear to discover a means, and some groups which are completely happy to be right here.
As we speak, we’ll separate the pretenders from the contenders by placing every group right into a tier to find out who has the most effective probability at hoisting a Lombardi trophy a month from now.
Begin making trip plans
14. Houston Texans
The Texans kick off the underside quartet after struggling all season in opposition to a bottom-10 schedule. C.J. Stroud went from sensational to suspect in a single calendar yr. The offense was lackluster when wholesome, they usually’ve solely trended within the improper path since dropping Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for the season.
If Houston wins within the first spherical, it’ll be due to their protection. They make you one-dimensional, don’t enable the massive play via the air, and completed the season with the second-highest stress fee in opposition to the quarterback.
Star gamers rise to the event. That’s one thing Stroud did at Ohio State on the most important stage. If Houston advances past the primary spherical, it’ll be as a result of Stroud, Will Anderson Jr., or Derek Stingley Jr. carry out like the highest total draft picks they had been coming into the league. Don’t rule out a Nico Collins breakout recreation, both.
Nevertheless, accidents at vast receiver and limitations on offense give Houston the bottom ceiling of any group within the playoffs.
13. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels got here into the league because the reigning Heisman winner. These varieties of gamers have unrealistic expectations. The Commanders had no enterprise making the playoffs. However Daniels helped Washington rating not less than 26 factors in eight of their video games.
Kliff Kingsbury’s second probability hasn’t gone unnoticed throughout the head teaching cycle. He’s helped Washington’s floor recreation rank fourth in dashing success fee since Week 11. In high-leverage video games, Daniels’s improv abilities on the bottom have bailed Washington out time and time once more. Sprinkle in a giant play right here and there, and that’s how the Commanders made the postseason.
It’s the opposite aspect of the ball that’ll be the explanation the Commanders are one-and-done within the playoffs. The Cooper Rush-led Cowboys scored 34 factors in opposition to Washington. Pittsburgh, whose offense leaves loads to be desired, reached 28 factors.
Washington acquired much-needed reinforcements, getting Jonathan Allen again in Week 17. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore can be a giant increase, however there’s nonetheless little motive to imagine these two might be sufficient to decelerate Tampa Bay. Washington is forward of schedule, and that’ll present this weekend.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s group went 0-4 down the stretch, failing to surpass 17 factors in every contest. However profitable horny within the playoffs doesn’t matter, and the Steelers are the kind of group to win a recreation 18-16 — ask the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is nice sufficient in opposition to the run defensively to muck any recreation up. We’ll get to see playoff Russ in motion. Historical past means that he’ll make the Steelers aggressive. George Pickens is one reception away from placing Pittsburgh in scoring place, and perhaps Arthur Smith will make Jaylen Warren the focus for a change.
It’s powerful to neglect the previous month or a loss to the Browns in November. Tomlin’s “us in opposition to the world” mentality works within the common season, however the Steelers by no means felt like a group that might string collectively a number of wins in opposition to high quality opponents, and that received’t change this month.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Typically talking, each time you will have an elite quarterback, you will have an opportunity to beat anyone. Justin Herbert’s playoff debut comes on the highway together with his finest goal, a rookie slot receiver.
Herbert has the very best proportion of on-target throws of any playoff quarterback and was second in PFF’s “big-time throws.” We’ve seen Herbert bail the Chargers out of suboptimal conditions all yr and go above and past what he’s requested.
Regardless of going through the twenty fourth best schedule of defenses, it is a Chargers group that completed twenty ninth within the NFL in dashing success fee. You may’t be taken critically in case you can’t run the ball within the playoffs.
It doesn’t assist that Joshua Palmer, who’s fourth on the group in targets, has been dominated out. That places extra stress on rookie Ladd McConkey.
The Chargers are one other group forward of schedule. Their protection will present its flaws, possible inflicting them to be one-and-done within the playoffs. At any time when they performed an offense with a pull down the stretch, Los Angeles struggled to get off the sphere.
This isn’t a group that feels reliable, particularly on the highway.
So that you’re saying there’s an opportunity
10. Denver Broncos
These subsequent three groups performed with sufficient variance all through the season the place it wouldn’t be shocking for them to drag off not less than one upset. Does that imply it’ll occur? Not essentially.
However just a few weeks in the past the Denver Broncos had a commanding first half lead over the Chargers, however blew it as the sport progressed. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix ended the season on a excessive observe, finishing not less than 72 p.c of his passes in every of the ultimate three video games. Denver didn’t play probably the most tough schedule, however they scored in bunches.
Denver completed sixth in EPA per play since Week 11, which means they’ve the potential of producing large performs each drive. That’s the important thing to success within the playoffs whenever you get fewer possessions than ordinary.
The higher information for Denver is that they completed third in EPA per play defensively, and had been one of the vital stingiest dashing defenses within the second half. Zach Allen lastly obtained the popularity he deserved, whereas Nik Bonitto is a budding star, and Patrick Surtain isn’t the cornerback you need to take a look at.
Denver sits on the high of the “forward of schedule groups.” They’ve all the pieces you have to pull off an upset, however we fear that there’s not sufficient firepower exterior of Courtland Sutton to make a run.
9. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings could be ranked greater in the event that they had been taking part in at house. Their protection makes you earn each yard, are wonderful at stopping the run, and may trigger sufficient chaos to pressure you right into a mistake.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are one of many higher vast receiver duos within the NFL. It’s a shock each time a group holds Jefferson below 100 receiving yards.
However Aaron Jones by no means obtained going throughout the second half of the season. You’re telling me the Vikings hopes relaxation on the appropriate arm of Sam Darnold on the highway? Have enjoyable with that.
This can be a Vikings group that struggled to drag away from the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, and Seahawks on the highway within the second half, and didn’t rating double-digits in opposition to the Lions. They’ve expertise, however are a unique squad on the freeway.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Love the Buccaneers. Hate their draw. Baker Mayfield is the quarterback you need to go to battle with in a do-or-die scenario. Mayfield places his physique on the road for each completion.
Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the emergence of Jalen Mcmillan provides Tampa Bay a stable trio of cross catchers. They’re additionally efficient utilizing their operating backs within the passing recreation.
Talking of, now could be the time for Liam Coen to unleash Bucky Irving. It’s the playoffs. Irving single-handedly received the Bucs video games down the stretch. Reward him now that it’s the playoffs.
Tampa Bay was second in EPA per play and success fee offensively. They’ll rating, and I totally count on them to mild the scoreboard up in opposition to Washington. However can they get any stops transferring ahead? Their numbers say sure, however the schedule says they haven’t performed anyone.
We’ll imagine it once we see it, however wouldn’t rule out Tampa Bay giving whoever they face within the divisional spherical extra points than anticipated.
One thing smells fishy right here
7. Detroit Lions
If I haven’t misplaced you but, I in all probability will by having these three groups lumped collectively. Let’s begin with Detroit, the No. 1 seed within the NFC.
In Week 18, many individuals noticed a dominant 31-9 efficiency. I noticed a protection that might’ve simply given up 24 factors had Darnold hit three or 4 routine performs.
The week earlier than, the Lions allowed 34 factors to the 49ers. In that recreation, the Niners missed a pair of area objectives and threw two interceptions. So, it may have simply been 40+ for San Francisco.
Two weeks earlier than, Josh Allen and the Payments scored 48. We all know the Lions can rating. However you need to have a spine defensively, and I haven’t seen something to counsel they’ll get stops when they should within the playoffs, which is why they’re ranked so low.
6. Inexperienced Bay Packers
Should you requested me which group was probably the most tough to explain, it’d be the cheeseheads. There have been factors throughout the common season the place I believed Inexperienced Bay was the most effective group within the NFC. Accidents, inconsistencies, and a passing offense with out an identification will forestall the Packers from profitable the Tremendous Bowl. Dropping big-play risk Christian Watson will show pricey.
When Edgerrin Cooper is on the sphere, the Packers have probably the greatest defenses within the NFL. They restrict explosive performs as a lot as anyone Inexperienced Bay’s challenge is as soon as the opponent reaches the pink zone, it often ends in a landing.
I do know Jordan Love has a fadeaway throw of 1 foot for 40 yards in his again pocket. The explanation you exit and get a Josh Jacobs is for the playoffs. Matt LaFLeur can have the Packers in the most effective conditions doable, and Jeff Hafley’s protection will proceed to play bully ball.
However one thing has been off with the Packers all yr and projecting them to do one thing thy haven’t all yr — persistently beat the great groups on their schedule — looks like a giant ask.
5. Buffalo Payments
Buffalo has arguably the most effective participant within the NFL at Josh Allen. At any time when they take the sphere, it’s a shock if the Payments don’t rating 30 factors.
The addition of Amari Cooper hasn’t carried out a lot on a all the way down to down foundation, though Cooper has a giant reception a recreation. It nonetheless looks like Khalil Shakir the one vast receiver Allen can belief, however that’s not ok within the playoffs.
James Cook dinner has been all or nothing, however the nothing occurs extra typically than many are prepared to confess, particularly in opposition to the highest tier of defenses. So, Buffalo will do what they at all times do and count on Allen to get them into good spots and out of porous conditions. That works within the common season, however I’ve my doubts within the postseason.
Allen won’t have a alternative to attain 30 the best way Buffalo’s protection has been taking part in. If I’ve a tough time seeing them stopping Denver, who will it look in opposition to Baltimore the following week? Or Kansas Metropolis after that? The Payments are one other group I’ve struggled with all season, and imagine they’re extra paper tigers than Tremendous Bowl champs.
The actual threats
4. Los Angeles Rams
Playoff McVay. Playoff Stafford. Better of all, the Rams path to the massive recreation means they’ll should undergo the defenses of the Vikings and Lions earlier than the NFC Championship. McVay — who’s the most effective coach within the NFL for my cash — isn’t going to wrestle on offense when taking part in in a dome.
Which one of many above defenses do you belief to decelerate Puka Nacua? Because the offensive line has gotten more healthy, the Rams dashing assault has stabilized their offense. That makes their play-action and display screen recreation all of the more practical.
The Rams run protection has quietly been efficient down the stretch. Their defensive position, led by rookie Jared Verse, is likely to be probably the most underrated group in the whole playoffs. They play bully ball and reside on the opposite aspect of the scrimmage.
This group is probably the most slept on within the playoff area. The Rams are my decide to characterize the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Expertise-wise, the Eagles are superior to everyone within the NFC. Not even two months in the past, they destroyed the Rams on their house area. The Eagles beat the Packers, Commanders, Ravens, and Steelers this season.
To me, that is the most effective protection within the postseason. Jalen Carter is unblockable. Josh Sweat persistently wins, and the velocity, athleticism, and instincts on the Eagles protection is second to none. The one fear could be inexperience within the secondary and at linebacker. Qunyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are first-year gamers. Nakobe Dean is mainly a rookie. A wise coach, perhaps one residing in Los Angeles, will look to isolate these three and take a look at their youth.
For a group with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith, you’d suppose the Eagles would cruise to 35 factors a recreation.
With their offensive line, how may they not? Once more, talent-wise, it’s tough to doubt Philly. However Hurts hasn’t performed significant soccer in practically a month, they usually undergo lulls offensively that make you surprise how checked within the Eagles are. Nevertheless it’s the playoffs, and there are good to nice gamers all around the area for the Eagles. I see them squeaking by the Packers, blowing out Tampa Bay, and falling flat on their faces at house in opposition to the Rams in what might be a disappointing end to a formidable season.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Will this lastly be the season the “playoff Lamar” jokes stop?
It was one other ho-hum season for Jackson after he threw for over 4,100 yards and totaled 45 touchdowns. Baltimore’s offense would undergo stretches the place they seemed clunky. Then, you’d lookup and see they’ve 30+ factors. They’re the most effective dashing offense in soccer, and also you’d suppose Todd Monken leans on Lamar’s legs greater than ever.
Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Possible are constant. But when this offense reaches the Tremendous Bowl, it’ll be as a result of Derrick Henry, who tied for the NFL’s lead with 25 rushes of not less than 15 yards and led the NFL in first downs.
Statistically, Baltimore boasts the most effective protection within the NFL since Week 11. Kyle Hamilton is a unicorn. Roquan Smith has been a top-2 linebacker for 2 years. Rookie Nate Wiggins has been pretty much as good as marketed at cornerback. And the entrance seven punches you within the face each snap, controls the road of scrimmage, and may stress you from the within or the sting.
There aren’t many flaws on this Ravens group. Every other yr, they’d be the group to beat. However like each different yr, there’s the identical group standing of their means.
The group to beat
1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Amazingly, the Chiefs received 15 video games this season. I waffled forwards and backwards between “Is that this the worst 15-win group of all-time” and “no one is thrashing them within the playoffs.” The latter is true now that Joe Thuney is at left deal with. Move safety was the most important motive for concern within the playoffs because the Chiefs cycled via rookies and journeymen earlier than their hand was pressured to maneuver Thuney.
Thuney at left deal with and Hollywood Brown makes this the most effective model of the Chiefs offense we’ve seen all season. It’s a small pattern dimension, however they scored 27 and 29 factors in opposition to two playoff opponents, and did so with out a lot resistance.
Brown and Xavier Worthy add a big-play ingredient that had been lacking all season. Sprinkle in DeAndre Hopkins on third downs and within the pink zone, and Travis Kelce on the six performs when Patrick Mahomes is operating for his life as Jawann Taylor avoids getting penalized, and I’m unsure who’s stopping the Chiefs.
The schedule helps. Within the divisional spherical, Kansas Metropolis faces the lowest-seed remaining. Then, they’ll get Baltimore or Buffalo, earlier than going through the NFC opponent. I’ll take the most effective quarterback to ever take a snap together with his full arsenal of weapons at Arrowhead Stadium.
Oh yeah, the protection.
Chris Jones led all defensive tackles in cross rush wins this season. He’s the definition of a game-wrecker. George Karlaftis doesn’t get the love he deserves. He’ll make a number of performs a recreation to impression the end result.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will combine and match personnel till he finds what works. Spags’ blitz packages are a factor of magnificence, and I wouldn’t need anyone else calling performs as he at all times finds methods to govern the opponents cross safety.
I hate to play spoiler, however the Chiefs are profitable all of it. Once more. They’re the group to beat and it will likely be shocking if Mahomes isn’t lifting one other Lombardi Trophy a month from now.
