The San Francisco 49ers had been embarrassed on Sunday Evening Soccer by the Buffalo Payments. There’s no different option to sugar coat it. Dominated in all three phases of the sport, Kyle Shanahan and Co. suffered the indignity of not solely being overwhelmed by 25 factors, however watching as their opponents coasted so simply that they subbed in Mitchell Trubisky to permit Josh Allen to take his victory lap.
There’s no query the Payments are a terrific workforce, one with reputable Tremendous Bowl potential — however the 49ers had been purported to be as properly. Now they’re 5-7, the season is successfully over with the information that Christian McCaffrey is probably going accomplished for the rest of the season with a PCL damage. Somewhat than viewing this workforce as one of many class organizations of the NFC, we now must ponder whether or not accidents, age, and the collapse of Shanahan’s system has brought about the 49ers’ window to slam shut — and maybe extra importantly: Is there a option to open it once more?
The precipitous fall of the 49ers
A lot has been manufactured from the offensive woes of San Francisco this season, and people passed off to make certain. The lack of McCaffrey for almost all of 2024 is one thing the workforce has struggled to take care of, however this workforce has additionally contended a down 12 months from Brandon Aiyuk, in addition to a big regression by Brock Purdy which has turned their offense from third within the NFL in scoring a 12 months in the past, to fifteenth in 2024.
Whereas the offense has garnered the vast majority of headlines, it’s the collapse of the 49ers’ protection that has been most profound in 2024. In comparison with a 12 months in the past the workforce is, properly, delicate. San Francisco has at all times executed a reasonably primary, however brutally efficient defensive system. They bend in opposition to the go within the middle of the sphere, then tighten up within the crimson zone to cease scoring. In the meantime they’re routinely boasted top-of-the-line run-stopping items within the NFL, rating within the top-five from 2020-2023.
This 12 months that’s fallen aside. The workforce is permitting 6.9 factors extra per recreation than they did in 2023, inflicting the workforce to drop from third within the league in factors allowed, to twenty fifth. In the meantime they’ve plummeted from being a That is mirrored by shedding each phases of the protection, the place they’ve plummeted from third within the league in opposition to the run, to fifteenth. Whereas it’s honest to attribute a few of this drop off to accidents, there’s additionally one other a part of the story which isn’t talked about almost sufficient.
San Francisco has drafted horribly for a number of years
While you take a look at basis of what made the 49ers dominant it was their completely stellar mid-round drafting at the start of Shanahan’s tenure. San Francisco executed higher than any workforce after the primary day, primarily filling their roster with stars from the 2nd and third days of the NFL Draft. For 3 years from 2017-2020 their mid-round drafting is a who’s-who of key starters and significant contributors.
- George Kittle (Fifth spherical, 2017)
- D.J. Jones (sixth spherical, 2017)
- Fred Warner (third spherical, 2018)
- Dre Greenlaw (Fifth spherical, 2019)
These are simply the standout gamers. As well as the 49ers discovered dozens of useful, short-term contributors to bolster their roster who’ve since moved on to different groups. Nonetheless, starting with the 2021 NFL Draft it’s been drought for San Francisco.
A lot is manufactured from discovering Brock Purdy within the seventh spherical of the 2022 NFL Draft that it’s given everybody collective amnesia that outdoors of Purdy this workforce has struggled to seek out anybody of notice. Of the THIRTY FOUR gamers the workforce has drafted from 2021 to 2024 Purdy is the one man who remotely seems to be like a star, with Talanoa Hufanga being the one different man you may actually give credit score as being legit.
This has led to a profound useful resource drain to the 49ers. They saved up their turn-and-burn roster method of letting guys depart and restocking with the draft, however the concern is that they merely stopped drafting properly. That has intensified the fall-off as a consequence of accidents, which in flip has taken away plenty of the magic.
It’s tough to actually see anybody within the 49ers system proper now who appears destined to be a star. Ricky Pearsall may turn into an honest receiver, however he merely doesn’t look almost as impactful as Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk had been on the group. In the meantime the defensive aspect of the ball is missing anybody who seems to be poised for greatness.
Drafting Purdy was the best cowl for the 49ers to keep away from criticism over buying and selling up and taking Trey Lance with the No. 3 decide in 2021, and Purdy has continued to be placed on a pedestal for instance of San Francisco’s drafting greatness, whereas the fact is that they’ve been extraordinarily dangerous at drafting for 3 years in a row.
Age is catching up with them
The 49ers entered the 2024 NFL season ranked Fifth-oldest within the league, with a median age of 26.88. The problem the workforce now faces is that they’re getting previous and banged up at their most crucial positions.
Trent Williams retains the offensive line afloat, and at this level he’s taking part in on borrowed time. Williams is destined to be a Corridor of Fame left deal with, however at age 36 he realistically solely has one or two simpler years left within the tank, at most. When he goes the offensive line will plummet, and we’ve already seen the 49ers be less-than-stellar this season each in go manufacturing, and run blocking.
At this level it’s unimaginable to know what Christian McCaffrey’s future is. Put on-and-tear is beginning to meet up with him, and with over 1,300 carries and 200 receptions on his physique it’s trying more and more dicey whether or not or not he’ll be capable to stay efficient.
Leonard Floyd, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk, De’Vondre Campbell — all starters over the age of 30 with out a strong backup plan in place.
If this workforce is struggling with these guys, there’s not a lot past hope that tells you they’ll be capable to flip it throughout as they start to say no.
There’s additionally the query of Shanahan’s offense
As soon as seen because the gold normal of offensive innovation, the Shanahan West Coast offense is beginning to lose its shine. That’s not simply taking place in San Francisco, however down each department of his teaching tree.
The groups working variations of the Shanahan offense with former coordinator below his tutelage are all struggling to persistently rating in 2024.
- Texans: 23.7 pts (twelfth)
- 49ers: 22.5 pts (fifteenth)
- Rams 21.2 pts (twentieth)
- Dolphins: 19.3 pts (twenty fourth)
In the meantime the highest scoring groups within the NFL, the Lions, Payments, and Ravens are both working Erhardt-Perkins or Air Coryell. Defenses have discovered to counter the Shanahan offense by getting extra athletic at linebacker, including lateral pace, and shutting down explosive performs that come after the catch. We’re again to pounding the ball inside on the run, and establishing deep passes by means of the air.
That’s not one thing you’ll be able to simply swap to and from in a single day, and if this pattern continues it’s tough to see how the 49ers can retool their offense to hold.
The 49ers can nonetheless be good, however it’s getting harder to see a path ahead
The profound quantity of accidents San Francisco has sustained is unimaginable to disregard. This goes past the straightforward “everyone seems to be beat up this time of 12 months” phrasing, due to how profound the damage impression to this workforce has been.
That stated, it’s tough to see what the subsequent step for the 49ers can be — even when wholesome. Age is catching up with them, dangerous drafting is catching up with them, the scheme is getting stale, and it’s beginning to change into unclear if Brock Purdy actually is the man. Time may show this incorrect, however it’s starting to look an terrible lot like Kyle Shanahan’s workforce is regressing, and there’s no option to cease the downward spiral.
The NFC West continues to be a weak division. There’s completely a manner this workforce can return to the playoffs and make an impression as soon as extra. Nonetheless, proper now it seems to be much more just like the 49ers are set on a path to fade just like the Cowboys or Bengals, quite than take the subsequent step just like the Payments or Lions did. That’s merely the fact proper now.
