If Trump Loses the Election, X Will Additionally Lose out Huge Time

I’ve been engaged on my predictions for social media in 2025, however there’s one notably well timed prognostication amongst them that may’t wait. Although it’s in all probability not a radical forecast for many who’ve been paying consideration.  

The way forward for the platform previously referred to as Twitter could be very a lot depending on the end result of this week’s U.S. Presidential Election. If Trump wins, X, and proprietor Elon Musk, can even win huge, but when Trump loses, the reverse can be true. And given X’s broader struggles, I’m undecided it the platform will even survive one other yr if that’s the case.

Right here’s why:

Elon Musk has put his popularity on the road in backing Trump, and is doing all that he can to get Trump re-elected.

So why is Elon so devoted to Trump hastily?

That’s an attention-grabbing query, notably when as not too long ago as two years in the past, Musk mentioned:

Elon’s view, two years in the past, was that Trump was too outdated to be President and triggered an excessive amount of distracting drama in his time in workplace.

And naturally, Trump, in his common model, responded to Musk’s feedback:

Trump additional famous that Musk ought to deal with “getting himself out of the Twitter mess, as a result of he might owe $44 billion for one thing that’s maybe nugatory.” 

But, two years later, they’re brothers in arms, striving in direction of a aim that Elon was clearly against, through the use of the platform that Trump mentioned was nugatory.

Looks like a giant shift, however actually, it’s far much less to do with aligning ideologies, as each males at the moment are eager to counsel, and way more to do with gaining energy, on either side of the equation.

Musk’s buy of Twitter comes right down to political affect, and having the ability to shift public opinion on insurance policies and politicians who oppose his varied plans.

We’ve seen this in motion, with Musk loudly and repeatedly attacking governments and regulators that he has an issue with, whereas both amplifying help for many who work with him and his firms, or quietly adhering to their requests.

The obvious instance is in Brazil, the place X not too long ago opposed a courtroom order to droop the profiles of customers recognized by Brazilian officers as distributing misinformation. That defiance led to X being banned in Brazil for a month, earlier than Elon and Co. finally determined to motion the Brazilian authorities’s requests, as a way to be reinstated within the nation.

The Brazilian calls for relate to customers who’ve continued to say that the 2022 Brazilian election was “stolen,” which resulted within the ouster of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Numerous investigations have been carried out into these claims, and no proof has been discovered to help such. And as this declare undermines the present authorities, Brazilian officers determined to quash them the place they’ll, by demanding that X, amongst others, de-platform these customers.

Musk refused to motion the request, then went on varied rants about corruption throughout the Brazilian authorities, and the Brazilian authorized system, whereas calling on Brazilians to vote out their authorities at subsequent alternative.

But, different governments have requested X to do the very same factor, in eradicating sure accounts on account of what they’ve deemed violations of native legal guidelines. And X has carried out so, typically with a notice about the way it’s against such. However it’s actioned such requests anyway.

So why was Elon so riled up about Brazil, however not a lot in Turkey, regardless of the core challenge being precisely the identical?

As a result of Musk misplaced cash when Bolsonaro was voted out, and he’s making an attempt to make use of his energy and affect at X to get again at those that’ve stymied his enterprise plans.

Bolsonaro and Musk had shaped a enterprise relationship that stood to grant Musk important advantages for his initiatives, together with favorable offers on lithium for Tesla from Brazil’s mines. Lithium is a key part of electrical automotive batteries, and Musk has been working with a number of South American area governments to get higher offers for the mineral.

Musk, for instance, established a lithium provide take care of Bolivia again in 2021, following the ousting of Bolivian President Evo Morales, who had been against permitting American firms to come back in and take Bolivia’s assets.

Which, on the time, noticed Musk submit this tweet:

That’s telling of his views on Twitter, and its capability for political affect, and it’s value additionally noting that following this tweet, Musk began shopping for up Twitter inventory, which finally led to him buying the app.

One other instance is Argentina, the place Musk has been effusive in his reward of President Javier Milei.

Guess who’s additionally been engaged on a lithium provide deal for Tesla? That’s proper, Milei met with Musk at Tesla’s Austin headquarters earlier this yr to debate potential lithium initiatives.

Musk’s impetus is obvious in all of his dealings at X. X has readily actioned authorities requests from India, the place Tesla’s at the moment working in direction of the institution of recent distribution agreements for its automobiles. As per the above, X has additionally adhered to Turkish authorities calls for, which is contemplating alternatives for each Tesla and Starlink.

The strategy is obvious, however the re-election of Trump is Musk’s key venture on this entrance, and his key promoting level for X as a political affect machine.

If Trump wins this week, Elon will be capable of entry new alternatives for X, both by means of authorities initiatives or enterprise offers regarding that political affect. Which, once more, is the actual play for Elon right here, in selling X as a way to sway voters, based mostly on his personal presence within the app, and his potential to nudge platform approaches to profit no matter trigger he chooses.

A Trump win could be an Elon win on this respect, in endorsing his private energy to shift voting outcomes, which is one thing that he might promote to opposing events in lots of areas.

A Trump loss, nonetheless, would successfully kill off many, many alternatives for X.

And X must get again on observe. The corporate’s income is down someplace within the neighborhood of 70% from what it was earlier than Musk took over, whereas it’s additionally shedding tens of millions of customers.

Advertisers proceed to distance themselves from Elon’s extra divisive strategy to platform administration, and there’s little motive for them to come back again. And while you couple that with the big debt burden that Elon has saddled the corporate with as a part of the funding for his takeover, and there’s no manner that X is popping a revenue, of any variety, any time quickly.

Actually, X is on observe to submit a serious loss in 2024.

And if issues don’t flip round quickly, there’s solely a lot that Musk and his buyers will take up on this entrance, regardless of his private wealth.

So once more, the destiny of X could be very a lot linked to the destiny of Trump on this election. And if Trump loses, X, and Musk, can be in dire straits.

A Harris victory will put X on the quick observe to chapter, and if that occurs, I predict that Elon can be trying to get out of the social media enterprise within the second half of 2025.

Musk not too long ago famous in an interview that if Trump loses “I’m f***ed”. And whereas consultants don’t see the broader impacts of such hitting his different initiatives, like Tesla or SpaceX, even when Harris wins, X can be in a a lot harder spot.

So other than TikTok probably being saved if Trump is returned to The White Home, the opposite social media angle, stemming direct from the vote, might be the eventual lack of X, and what’s left of Twitter within the app.