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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
The India Pharma and Healthcare sector is anticipated to keep up its development momentum in Q2 FY25E. We venture gross sales/Ebitda development of 11%/15% YoY for our protection universe. Our assumptions are:
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Pharma protection is anticipated to see 11% YoY gross sales development, pushed by a 12% YoY enhance within the India enterprise, offset by a ~5% QoQ decline within the U.S. Average worth erosion and regular traction in key merchandise (gSpiriva, gMyrbetriq) and the specialty scale-up will partly steadiness the QoQ decline in gRevlimid gross sales.
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Ebitda margins for the pharma phase are anticipated to increase by 88 bps YoY, pushed by development in key markets (India and U.S.) and decrease enter prices (increasing gross margin by ~201 bps YoY). This can be partly offset by larger prices, together with an anticipated enhance in R&D spending and rise in freight prices (+219% YoY and +38% QoQ).
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The hospital enterprise is projected to develop 17% YoY, supported by regular occupancy, development in Common income per occupied mattress, and M&As (Max Healthcare). Ebitda margin enlargement is anticipated for Apollo Hospital because of lowered spending on Apollo 24/7, whereas Max Healthcare may even see a margin decline because of integration prices.
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The diagnostics phase is anticipated to ship 11% YoY gross sales development, pushed by affected person/check quantity will increase and regular margins.
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The retail pharmacy enterprise (Medplus and Apollo Pharmacy) is anticipated to proceed its double-digit development trajectory.
General, we foresee sturdy performances from Lupin, Mankind, Solar Pharma, Torrent, and Apollo Hospital, whereas Dr. Reddy’s, Alkem, and Max Healthcare could present extra muted outcomes.
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