I’ve a rule for choosing rematches with regards to soccer: the second time two groups play, I usually choose the staff that didn’t win the primary time to win the second time.
Nonetheless, with the rematches this week within the NFL playoffs, I discover myself breaking that rule, particularly with Chiefs-Texans. Regardless of Houston’s protection wanting just like the second coming of the 2000 Ravens of their wildcard victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, I can’t choose in opposition to QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.
Listed below are three the explanation why the Chiefs will beat the Texans and transfer on to the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs are getting wholesome as Houston wears down
The damage report for the Texans this week is…not nice.
The names on there for Houston that I’m actually apprehensive about are RB Joe Mixon and LB Azeez Al-Shaiir. Al-Shaiir missed the primary recreation in opposition to the Chiefs the place Kansas Metropolis persistently attacked the aggressive nature of Houston’s linebackers. Not having their QB in the midst of the protection goes to convey everybody else up on the depth chart, placing the benefit in Kansas Metropolis’s favor. Mixon is very large if he can’t play. With the entire offensive ineptitude that Houston has gone by way of this 12 months, Mixon has given them some physicality within the backfield and saved that offense on schedule of their Wild Card win. Taking part in with no credible menace within the backfield and an offensive line that may get holes poked in them is a recipe for catastrophe.
On the flip facet, Kansas Metropolis is getting wholesome. DT Chris Jones is taking part in, as is WR Hollywood Brown. On prime of that, including CB Jaylen Watson again to the secondary room permits them to be extra versatile and DC Steve Spagnuolo can combine up his matchups on WR Nico Collins. Kansas Metropolis is loading up for an additional deep playoff run, and by getting wholesome on the proper time, they trigger main issues for Houston.
Kansas Metropolis’s hyper-West Coast offense has gotten the perfect of Demeco Ryans
In earlier matchups with Demeco Ryans’ defenses, the Chiefs have gotten the perfect of them by utilizing movement and misdirection to only pepper the uber-aggressive protection with jabs till Mahomes can hit a haymaker. The Chiefs’ hyper-West Coast offense is constructed to make use of movement to create leverage and disruption through stacks and bunches, which can give them as a lot house wanted to stretch this protection horizontally. Of their final matchup, QB Patrick Mahomes had a blistering 0.3 EPA per play and 53.1% Success Price, regardless of solely having a 5.7 aDOT. He was choosing the Texans’ protection aside beneath, and it doesn’t bode nicely for Houston.
Large Sport Spags
Let’s get again to the Spags portion of this. The Chiefs’ protection has at all times turned it up come playoff time, and their defensive coordinator follows swimsuit. Spagnuolo at all times appears to avoid wasting his greatest work for the playoffs, persistently dragging the highest offenses into the muck. I’m apprehensive for the Texans about this model of matchup the place they get dragged right into a ball management recreation, as a result of they may not rating sufficient factors. Along with the large recreation coordinator, the Chiefs have the perfect massive recreation defender within the recreation proper now in DT Chris Jones. Since 2022, Jones has 22 mixed pressures, 2.5 sacks and a bevy of lanes opened up for different cross rushers on the staff. When Jones is wholesome and the calendar turns to January, he turns up his play. In opposition to a Texans inside that has been hit and miss, that might be what helps Kansas Metropolis get the win.
